Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Sandro Mamukelashvili is projected to be the highest owned player in DFS tonight on both sites. The Spurs essentially have no frontcourt which leaves Mamu as one of the last men standing. Accordingly, he should get as many minutes as he can handle regardless of game script. Additionally, he’s actually a fairly solid fantasy point per minute guy as he’s averaging 0.84 FPPM on the season. A fade is never completely off the table in GPPs, but this is pretty strong value chalk.
- Keita Bates-Diop stands to benefit for all of the same reasons as Mamu mentioned above, however, he’s even cheaper. Due to his low price he rates out as one of the strongest values on the slate. That said, playing multiple high-owned players from a clearly tanking team is not for the faint of heart. While both Bates-Diop and Mamu rate well, be mindful of the collective ownership of your lineups tonight.
- Jaden Ivey will be another popular option from a tanking team tonight. However, the problem is he’s not particularly cheap at a price above $6k on both sites. Additionally, his median projection kind of just sucks relative to his price (roughly 32 fpts). At high ownership this is a spot you can look to pivot off of in GPPs for sure.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Trae Young
AJ Griffin
Keita Bates-Diop
Sandro Mamukelashvili
Franz Wagner
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Shai Glizzy, Killian Hayes, Markelle Fultz
SG: Paul George, Donovan Mitchell, Bradley Beal
SF: Trey Murphy III, Brandon Ingram, Kawhi Leonard
PF: Keegan Murray, Cam Johnson, Kristaps Porzingis
C: Jarrett Allen (if IN), Jonas Valanciunas, Ivica Zubac
DFS Popular Player: Sandro Mamukelashvili
Price: $4,200/$5,100
Own%: 70.00%/69.45%
DFS Value Player: Keita Bates-Diop
Price: $3,700/$5,100
5x%: 71%/28%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Jaden Ivey
Price: $6,700/$6,800
LevX: -19.61/-31.28
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
Trae Young as the popular/opto spend up is one of the glaring spots to pivot off of in GPPs. Likewise, AJ Griffin seems like forced value as he actually doesn’t project all that well even considering his cheap price. Additionally, there is some direct leverage opportunity by going with some of the lower owned Pistons and Spurs. With only 6 games and some very concentrated chalk this is a good slate for GPPs. Direct leverage, price range pivots, and lower owned studs are all in play tonight whether you go with one of those routes or multiple. The one thing to be mindful of is the amount of leverage needed for the types of contests you’re in. Good luck tonight!
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