Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Kristaps Porzingis is going to be incredibly popular despite the price tag. With no Beal or Kuzma on the Porzingis has an incredible 1.5 FPPM rate. Additionally, the Wizards get a great matchup against the tanking Spurs. Porzingis is priced at $9k on Draftkings and $8.9k on FD but has legitimate 50+ point upside tonight. His median projection will make him look like a point-per-$ god which is what is leading to the high ownership.
- Drew Eubanks rates out as one of the strongest DFS values on either site tonight due to the combination of cheap price, solid minutes, and decent projection. Furthermore, Nurkic is doubtful, Lillard was a late downgrade to questionable, and Grant/Simons are already ruled out. We could see an extremely short rotation for Portland with massive usage to go around.
- Dennis Smith Jr. is currently projected to be the highest owned player on the slate tonight. Granted, Ball is done, Rozier is doubtful, and Oubre is questionable so the opportunity is there. However, it’s tough to roster a player projected to be owned by over half the field on a 10 game slate with multiple pivots available. No thanks.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Dennis Smith Jr.
Monte Morris
Deni Avdija
Kristaps Porzingis
Drew Eubanks
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Tyrese Haliburton, Jrue Holiday, De’Aaron Fox
SG: Austin Reaves, Malik Monk, Shaedon Sharpe
SF: Cam Reddish, Tobias Harris, Ochai Agbaji
PF: KJ Martin, Jalen Williams, Pascal Siakam
C: Nikola Vucevic, Jakob Poeltl, Walker Kessler
DFS Popular Player: Kristaps Porzingis
Price: $9,000/$8,900
Own%: 40.03%/63.73%
DFS Value Player: Drew Eubanks
Price: $3,400/$4.800
5x%: 71%/28%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Dennis Smith Jr.
Price: $5,200/$5,800
LevX: -46.53/-48.67
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
Any time 3 Wizards players show up in optimal builds you need to question why we’re still playing NBA DFS this time of year. Alas, this is where we are. Monte Morris, Deni Avdija, and Porzingis are all going to be very popular so an easy way to get different is to simply limit exposure to that group of players. Likewise, just fading Dennis Smith Jr. also provides tremendous leverage if his projected ownership holds. Once you’ve made decisions on the Wizards and DSJ you can pretty much build how you want. Warrior, Raptors, Jazz, Kings, and Pacers are all teams that have multiple guys projecting well in the models. Good luck tonight!
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