Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Nassir Little is going to have absurdly high ownership tonight, but it may actually be warranted. He’s cheap on both DFS sites at $3.8k on Draftkings, and $4.3k on Fanduel. The Blazers are essentially shutting things down for the season which is opening up opportunities for the bench guys. Little is projected to play over 30 minutes tonight and is averaging around a fantasy point per minute with Lillard/Nurkic/Grant/Simons all off the floor. While there are a couple of pivots in his price range (Jevon Carter and Drew Eubanks), they will also be heavily owned.
- Jevon Carter rates as the highest point-per-$ player on the entire slate. He’s cheap on both sites, should play 25-30 minutes, and has a 22% usage rate. With both Giannis and Jrue out and a good matchup versus the tanking Pistons don’t overthink this one.
- Grayson Allen will be lower owned than some of his teammates, but relative to his median projection/ceiling he is still going to be overowned tonight. He will likely be the popular “fake sharp” pivot by people looking to take advantage of the Bucks situation at slightly lower ownership. While that is understandable, Carter/Middleton/Portis all just rate out better and have little to no pivots. Grayson on the other hand has 8-9 comparable players in his price range.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Jevon Carter
Kris Middleton
Nassir Little
Bobby Portis
Drew Eubanks
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Jamal Murray, Mike Conley, TJ McConnell
SG: Malik Monk, Joe Ingles, Devin Booker
SF: Trey Murphy III, RJ Barrett, Zach LaVine
PF: DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Anderson, Julius Randle
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Mitchell Robinson, Nikola Vucevic
Popular DFS Player: Nassir Little
Price: $3,800/$4,300
Own%: 70%/70%
Value DFS Player: Jevon Carter
Price: $3,400/$4,800
5x%: 80%/55%
Player to Avoid in GPPs: Grayson Allen
Price: $4,400/$5,100
LevX: -5.78/-4.89
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
The vast majority of DFS lineups tonight are going to feature a core of 3 Bucks and 2 Blazers. Most of that ownership will be taken up by Carter/Middleton/Portis for the Bucks and Sharpe/Little/Eubanks for the Blazers. Leverage can be gained by either targeting those teams but different players, or fading altogether. However, many of them rate extremely well, so be cautious of how much value chalk you fade. Teams that have multiple low-owned players popping in the models include the Bulls, Pacers, Knicks, and Wolves. Good luck!
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