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Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat 03.28.2023

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

  • Jalen Williams is projected to be pretty high owned tonight, but there’s no outlier reason why. However, that’s not to say he’s not a strong play. His median projection and ceiling relative to his price is what stands out. He’s simply to cheap for his production. With a median projection around 40 fantasy points and a 50 point ceiling it makes sense that at his price he’ll be popular.
  • Tyus Jones is lined up to be one of the top DFS values of the night with Morant doubtful. Jones has always been a solid fantasy point per minute producer and is projected to play over 30 minutes tonight. At a mid-$5k price tag on both sites Tyus Jones is a strong value piece to have in your core plays tonight.
  • Kelly Oubre chalk night is rarely a fun time. His ownership is high, his projection is mid, and there are multiple pivots in his price range. Additionally, the Hornets have absolutely zero incentive to win games a this point which makes it tough to justify paying up to the midrange for any of their players.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NBA Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement

Tyus Jones

Darius Garland

Desmond Bane

Jalen Williams

Nick Richards

NBA GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is  dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

PG: Markelle Fultz, Trae Young, Fred VanVleet

SG: Dejounte Murray, Tyler Herro, Jordan Poole

SF: Brandon Ingram, Svi Mykhailiuk, Deni Avdija

PF: Paolo Banchero, Evan Mobley, Kristaps Porzingis

C: Jonas Valanciunas, Kevon Looney, Wendell Carter Jr.

Popular DFS Player: Jalen Williams

Price: $6,700/$7,000
Own%: 46.15%/70%

Value DFS Player: Tyus Jones

Price: $5,300/$5,600
5x%: 67%/64%

Player to Avoid in GPPs: Kelly Oubre Jr.

Price: $6,800/$7,700
LevX: -20.74/-5.18

NBA DFS Final Thoughts

Tonight features quite a bit of one-sided matchup chalk. While player from Memphis and Cleveland will be popular, no one is really playing the other side of those matchups in Atlanta and Orlando respectively. In contrast, both sides of the Charlotte/Oklahoma City game will be popular. However, both of those teams and players are more volatile than their ownership may suggest. Other teams that have multiple players popping in the models at somewhat lower ownership are the Raptors, Warriors, Pelicans, and Heat. Good luck!


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