Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Ja Morant is going to be incredibly popular regardless of the price. It’s not often we see guys in the $9k range with this type of ownership, but the Grizzlies are projected to be without Tyus, Bane, Jackson Jr., and Adams/Clarke remain out. Morant should have absurd usage tonight versus the Clippers and play as many minutes as he can handle after sitting out the last game. Legitimate 60 fantasy point upside here.
- Drew Eubanks should continue to see decent minutes for the shorthanded Blazers squad. While the matchup isn’t great versus the Kings, the Blazers just don’t have a lot of options. Thankfully, Eubanks has been a little over a fantasy-point-per minute recently and is projected to play around 30 minutes. At his price point he still grades out as a strong value at the C position.
- Nassir Little also stands to benefit from the same shortened rotation as Eubanks, however, he is a significantly worse FPPM player. Additionally, when looking at rotations and minutes of the previous games, Little is not blowout proof. He’s lost 4th quarter minutes in 2 of the past 3 games including sitting half of the 3Q and the entire 4Q of the last game. When you add in his ownership and price increase this is an easy decision in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Ja Morant
Keon Johnson
Isaiah Joe
Nassir Little
Drew Eubanks
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Kris Dunn, Chris Paul, D’Angelo Russell
SG: Ochai Agbaji, Tyler Herro, Devin Booker
SF: Talen Horton-Tucker, Zach LaVine, Jimmy Butler
PF: DeMar DeRozan, Kenneth Lofton Jr.,Simone Fontecchio
C: Deandre Ayton, Walker Kessler, Nikola Vucevic
Popular DFS Player: Ja Morant
Price: $9,000/$9,900
Own%: 56.70%/53.84%
Value DFS Player: Drew Eubanks
Price: $4,700/$5,600
5x%: 38%/16%
Player to Avoid in GPPs: Nassir Little
Price: $5,100/$4,700
LevX: -30.32/-51.23
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
DFS lineups tonight are going to be littered with Spurs, Grizzlies, and Blazers. While all of these teams have shortened rotations, the Spurs and Blazers are also just awful and can have volatile rotations. The Grizzlies chalk would seem to be the “safest”, but after Morant it’s a steep drop off. Overlooked teams with players popping in the models are the Jazz, Bulls, Heat, Suns, and Lakers. Good luck!
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