Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Sando Mamukelasvili is averaging over a fantasy point per minute the past month and has been a bright spot for the tanking Spurs. He’s projected to play around 28 minutes tonight, which would make him a solid value at his price point on both DFS sites. However, even considering all that it’s hard to justify him having top 5 ownership on a 13 game slate.
- Bruce Brown could find himself as a must-play tonight if Jokic gets ruled out. Additionally, MPJ is also questionable and Jamal Murray is unlikely to play. Bruce Brown is a solid value regardless, but if all 3 of those guys were to miss Brown would be an elite point-per-$ option.
- Trendon Watford continues the recent trend of “mid-range priced Blazers to avoid in GPPs”. While the Blazers remain shorthanded, they are also just a bad basketball team. They have struggled to score even 100 points recently while getting blown out multiple times. Watford’s median projection is fine, however, in his price range you can find several comparable players with lower ownership.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Darius Garland
Spencer Dinwiddie
Bruce Brown
Sandro Mamukelashvili
Trendon Watford
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Markelle Fultz, Mike Conley, Jalen Brunson
SG: Shaedon Sharpe, Caris LeVert, Dejounte Murray
SF: Zach LaVine, RJ Barrett, Buddy Hield
PF: DeMar DeRozan, Jalen Williams, Paolo Banchero
C: Clint Capela, Walker Kessler, Nikola Vucevic
Popular DFS Player: Sandro Mamukelashvili
Price: $5,000/$5,300
Own%: 41.83%/44.30%
Value DFS Player: Bruce Brown
Price: $4,700/$5,800
5x%: 41%/17%
Player to Avoid in GPPs: Trendon Watford
Price: $5,900/$6100
LevX: -41.67/-54.30
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
Tonight seems to be very wide open outside of the chalk core of players. Additionally, the Warriors as a team are the next highest owned group of guys, however, even they aren’t egregious. Other teams that are getting overlooked in DFS are the Hawks, Pistons, Knicks, and Bulls. It’s also worth noting that outside of Bruce Brown, all of the other high owned players have a multitude of pivots. Don’t be afraid to get different tonight. Good luck!
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