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Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat 10.18.2022

Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt, but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

  • Lebron James is projected to be the highest owned stud player in DFS contests tonight. However, a murky backcourt situation could lead to Lebron playing more of the true point guard role. Formerly, we’ve seen this pseudo-point guard role boost Lebron’s ceiling for DFS.
  • Big Al Horford chalk is upon us. Not only is he underpriced, but he also has positional flexibility, and should see higher minutes. Eat it.
  • Robert Williams is out for the first half of the season for the Celtics. Last season he was averaging nearly a double-double per game and was a terrific defender. Clearly, this production has to go somewhere.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details:

Popular DFS Play: LeBron James

Popular player stats from the NBA Prop Tool
Popular player stats from the NBA Prop Tool

Price: $9,200/$10,800
Top Finish%: 35.2%/35%

Lebron James on opening tonight is going to be one of the most popular players in DFS contests. Indeed, this is for good reason. Not only does Lebron have the second highest median projection on the slate, he also has the highest probability of finishing as the highest scoring player in DFS. Furthermore, with Russell Westbrook and his high usage now coming off the bench we should see a bump to Lebron’s numbers with the starting unit this season.

Value DFS Play: Al Horford

Value player stats from the NBA Prop Tool
Value player stats from the NBA Prop Tool

Price: $4,900/$6,000
5x%: 77.7%/61.80%

Al Horford will be thrust into the starting C spot in the absence of Robert Williams. Horford has always been a versatile big that can accumulate fantasy points in a lot of ways. While it is likely that as a veteran his minutes won’t be excessive, his presence will be needed against Embiid. At a price point under $5k and multi-position eligibility Horford makes sense as a building block for DFS lineups tonight.

Situation to monitor: Robert Williams out

Robert Williams the Time Lord will miss the first half of the season for the Celtics. Whereas most people will instinctively gravitate towards Horford and Tatum, William’s impact isn’t just limited to the front court. Previously we have seen that Horford will shift to the starting C spot and Tatum to PF thus allowing Derrick White to enter the starting lineup. Don’t be surprised to see a strong performance out of Derrick White tonight.

NBA DFS final thoughts

Despite the ownership both Lebron and Al Horford both stand out as strong DFS plays. Nevertheless, there are still some viable pivots if you choose to fade either option. Embiid is being forced into lineups a lot less in optimizers which likely reduces his ownership even though he grades out as just as strong a play as Lebron. Horford, on the other hand, has a direct pivot on his same team with Malcom Brogdon at the exact same price point. The chalk builds tonight are heavy on Celtics and Lakers so a simple way to gain leverage is to force in some Sixers and/or Warriors. Good luck tonight!

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