Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat
Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt, but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Due to what has to be a pricing by Draftkings, Bam Adebayo is going to be extremely popular tonight at just $6.4k. Although he is not as cheap on Fanduel he still makes for a fine play there as well since you need two PF spots. Despite the ownership he still grades out as a strong play tonight.
- Tre Jones should be starting tonight and is a solid facilitator. He’s averaged roughly 13/4/7 points, rebounds, assists in his previous starts. He makes for a strong value in DFS contests tonight with a price under $5k.
- Contrary to the feelings of the rest of the DFS industry Terry Rozier is far from a lock tonight. There are multiple pivots at his same position and price range. Look to gain leverage here in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Popular DFS Play: Bam Adebayo
Price: $6,400/$7,900
Own%: 20.9%/23.8%
Bam is clearly mispriced coming off of a career high 19.1 points and 10.1 rebounds per game last season. With his averages already hitting the double-double bonus on DK and him being heavily involved in the offense this is a pretty easy decision. Lastly, he gets a matchup with Vuc who has never been known for his defensive prowess. Play Bam with confidence.
Value DFS Play: Tre Jones
Price: $4,200/$5,100
5x%: 56.8%/31.80%
The Spurs are in full rebuild mode and there are a lot of question marks regarding the potential rotation. Additionally, Pop has always been known to be a thorn in DFS player’s sides regarding player minutes. There is a very real chance no one on the team sees more than 30 minutes. However, as the starting PG and with respectable numbers in his few career starts Tre Jones is a very viable value option tonight for under $5k.
Player to Avoid: Terry Rozier
Price: $7,300/$7,200
LevX: -6.52/-29.70
LaMelo Ball is out, Miles Bridges is away from the team for reasons, and Boughknight just got a DUI. A level of debauchery not seen since the Jailblazers era. Regardless, the Hornets have a basketball game to play. This leads us to ‘Scary’ Terry Rozier. In vacuum Rozier is a fine play, however, we don’t play DFS in a vacuum. A negative LevX score is telling us that the projected ownership is too high relative to the GPP winning upside. Therefore, this is a spot we should look to get different with multiple pivots available tonight.
NBA DFS final thoughts
Quite a large slate to really kick off the season with 12-games tonight. As a result there are plenty of places to gain leverage. Use this to your advantage and feel free to pivot off of chalkier plays. Ultimately, the biggest decisions tonight are really centered around Terry Rozier and the Spurs value. Neither one of those options are truly a lock despite what the DFS industry as whole might feel. Good luck tonight!