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Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat 10.22.2022

Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt, but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

  • Giannis projects to be chalky on both sites tonight, and for good reason. Giannis has one of the highest FPPM (fantasy points per minute) in the entire NBA and is getting a terrific matchup tonight against a terrible Houston Rockets defense. It is possible that the lofty spread in this game will provide a slight ownership discount on Giannis as some may fear the potential blowout risk limiting his ceiling. Contrary to this belief though, it is very difficult to project blowouts and Giannis is capable of breaking the slate with a less than normal load of minutes.
  • Cedi Osman projects to be a solid value play tonight starting at SF for the Cavs just $4,000. However, Osman will come with some ownership and is very dependent on his shot falling in order to meet value. If rostering Osman, be deliberate with using the savings he provides, as he is not a player with a very high ceiling.
  • Ivica Zubac is $5,800 on Draftkings tonight following a 45 fantasy point performance against the Lakers on opening night. Recency bias and perhaps some overconfidence in Zubac's role make it likely that he will be the highest owned player on tonight's slate. As seen by Zubac's negative LevX score, the field is overestimating his ability to put up a GPP winning score on tonight's slate.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details:

Popular Play: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Popular player stats from the NBA Prop Tool

Price: $11,000/$11,500
Own%: 32.62%/52.94%

By all accounts you could argue that Giannis had a pretty mediocre game against the 76ers to open the season, finishing with 21-13-8 in 36 minutes (still scored 58.8 DK points). While that is obviously good, it's not up to the standards he set last season when he averaged 30-12-6 while only playing 33 minutes per game. This is a great spot for a monster Greek freak game tonight against a swiss cheese Houston Rockets defense.

Value Play: Cedi Osman

Value player stats from the NBA Prop Tool

Price: $4,000/$4,000
5x%: 59.8%/68.0%

Cedi Osman is drawing the start at SF for the Cleveland Cavaliers this season and is coming off a 17 point performance against Toronto in the Cavs opener. Osman shot 6-12 from the floor and 3-6 from three and finished with 23.3 DK points at $4,000 in that game, which is a solid 5.8x his salary. However, this Cavs team is relatively crowded on offense this season with the addition of Donavon Mitchell, and Osman is not someone who gets very many ancillary stats. Osman only recorded 3 rebounds and 1 assist in the opener, and averaged a mere 2.2 rebounds and 2 assists per game last season. Furthermore, when rostering Osman tonight, consider what the salary savings he provides is allowing you to do with the rest of your roster, as a bad shooting night could leave a somewhat chalky snowflake in your lineup.

Player to avoid in DFS: Ivica Zubac

Player to avoid stats from the NBA Prop Tool

Price: $5,800/$6,600
LevX: -11.90/-14.30

Ivica Zubac is coming off a 14 points, 7 rebound, and 5 block game against the Lakers to start the season. This resulted in a 45.8 fantasy point performance at $5,300 on Draftkings. The modest price bump of $500 combined with game log watching/recency bias is likely going to make Zubac the highest owned player on Draftkings tonight. While Zubac projects as a nice value, his negative LevX score indicates that he is being overvalued by the field.

NBA DFS final thoughts

Our first mid-sized slate of the season tonight is a fun one. 3 different center eligible players project to be the highest owned players on the slate, 2 of which can only fit in the C/UTIL spots on Draftkings. This creates a unique opportunity for leverage by playing only 1 of these players in your lineups. Giannis is one of the considerations, and has both the highest median and ceiling projection on the slate. Another one of these players is Ivica Zubac, whose negative LevX score indicates that he is being overvalued by the field following a strong performance to open the season. To find out the 3rd player you have to consider, you can grab a free subscription above and make your decisions from there! Good luck tonight!

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