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Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat 10.20.2022

Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt, but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

  • On a short slate with the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Lebron James, and Anthony Davis, much of the field is going to be jamming in Tyrese Maxey for value in an effort to fit all these studs. However, while Maxey's likelihood to play a lot of minutes bolster his floor, his lack of periphery stats and reliance on scoring make him a good fade candidate for tournaments in exchange for players with similar upside at much less ownership.
  • Patrick Beverley should draw another start for the Lakers and get a minimum of 25 minutes as they will need his defense against the wing-heavy Clippers. Given Beverley's ability to accumulate stats other than just points, he is able to meet value in a multitude of ways. More so, Beverley is a direct value pivot off of the mega-chalky Tyrese Maxey, while being $1,800 cheaper. Furthermore, using Beverley in your lineup should provide you an even greater ability to jam in the plethora of studs available on tonight's slate.
  • Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton are out tonight for the Bucks, creating an opportunity for the cheap role players on Milwaukee such as Grayson Allen and Bobby Portis to see expanded roles.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details:

Popular DFS Play: Tyrese Maxey

Popular player stats from the NBA Prop Tool

Price: $5,200/$6,600
Own%: 72.81%/53.89%

Hello massive Tyrese Maxey chalk! On a 2-game slate with high priced studs galore, much of the field is going to flock to an underpriced Tyrese Maxey, who is coming off a 17-4-3 sophomore season in 2021 and looking to continue his ascension. Maxey is locked into the starting 2-guard spot for the Sixers and opened the season on Tuesday with a 21 point performance in 38 minutes of action.

Value DFS Play: Patrick Beverley

Value player stats from the NBA Prop Tool

Price: $4,100/$5,000
5x%: 55.9%/38.30%

Patrick Beverley drew the start in his first game with the Los Angeles Lakers and only scored 3 real life points. However, Beverley still finished with 20.5 Draftkings points at $4.3k despite only attempting 5 field goals. Beverley's ability to rack up periphery stats, whether it be assists, rebounds, steals, or blocks, provides a nice floor so that when he does get some shots to fall, he will end up crushing his salary.

Situation to monitor: Khris Middleton out

Khris Middleton suffered an MCL sprain in the first round of last year's playoffs against the Chicago Bulls that may have costed the Bucks a chance to repeat as NBA Champions (sorry Celtics fans, all I speak is truth). Now however, Middleton is rehabbing from off-season wrist surgery and is expected to miss the first few weeks of the season. Pat Connaughton is also missing the start of the season with a right calf strain. This opens up a lot of minutes in the Bucks rotation and some potential cheap value pieces stepping into increased roles. One example may be Grayson Allen, who is $4,600 on Draftkings tonight and averaged 17 ppg last season when Middleton missed time.

NBA DFS final thoughts

These small NBA slates can be tricky, but it is clear that the field is going to be jamming in more stars and scrubs builds. This leaves you the option to take a more balanced approach in an effort to be different. That is not the only option though, as Tyrese Maxey projects to be heavy chalk. Paying up or all the way down at the guard position may lead you to a stars and scrubs build that is different from how the field is building. Furthermore, the $1,800 savings you get from using Patrick Beverley instead of Tyrese Maxey may give you salary flexibility that your opponents won't have. Good luck tonight!

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