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Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat 10.21.2022

Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt, but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

  • DeMar DeRozan should continue to put up numbers tonight with Zach LaVine missing another game. DeRozan has a usage rate above 30% with no LaVine and shouldn’t face a ton of resistance against the Wizards. He’ll be a popular DFS play tonight for good reason.
  • Josh Hart grades out as a terrific value play tonight. Furthermore, he will be a direct pivot off of the more popular DFS value play in Cam Johnson. Hart should continue to play high minutes and can contribute in a lot of categories.
  • Kevin Porter Jr. is coming off of a strong opening performance thus resulting in fairly high projected ownership. This high ownership combined with a $500 price increase is giving him a negative LevX score. Look to get different in DFS contests at this price range.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details:

Popular Play: DeMar DeRozan

Popular player stats from the NBA Prop Tool

Price: $8,700/$9,600
Own%: 20.95%/19.39%

DeRozan boasts a usage rate above 30% with LaVine off the court. Additionally, he’s finally become more of a stat-stuffer and less scoring reliant as evidenced by nine assists, six rebounds, and 3 StOCKS(shots + blocks) in the opener. Despite all this Draftkings has actually lowered his price to $8.7k and he remains very fairly priced on FD at $9.6k. He’ll be popular, but is still too cheap for the upside. Play him with confidence in DFS contests tonight.

Value Play: Josh Hart

Value player stats from the NBA Prop Tool

Price: $5,400/$5,900
5x%: 59.5%/48.40%

Josh Hart is just under a FPPM producer (fantasy point per minute) and will be playing 35+ minutes. He’s a very well rounded player and able to generate fantasy points in a lot of ways. Previously on Wednesday we saw him check off all the boxes with 19 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists and a steal. At just $5.4k he is an excellent value option tonight and the models agree.

Player to avoid in DFS: Kevin Porter Jr.

Player to avoid stats from the NBA Prop Tool

Price: $7,000/$6,800
LevX: -7.25/-5.53

Kevin Porter Jr. is coming off of a strong performance in the Rockets opener. He once again projects to be one of the highest owned players in DFS and has seen a price bump of $500 on Draftkings. Unfortunately for KPJ, while his price has increased and ownership remains high, not much has changed with his projection. This puts him in a similar situation to Terry Rozier on Wednesday. It’s not so much that Porter Jr. doesn’t do well, but more that there are multiple pivots in the same price range with similar median projections and ceilings that will be lower owned. This is one of the first places you can look to get different tonight.

NBA DFS final thoughts

As long as the pricing algorithms are still figuring things out early in the season we should look to target players who are underpriced relative to their ceilings for DFS. While this sounds intuitive, people will still often force expensive players into their lineups due to the value rather than going with a more balanced approach. Tonight for example, it is perfectly viable to have DeMar DeRozan as the most expensive player in your lineup. Likewise, people will also overvalue early performances and chase previous outcomes without context. Make sure you are treating every slate as its own and considering the most recent information available. Good luck tonight!

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