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Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat 10.23.2022

Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt, but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

  • Deandre Ayton has had a solid start to the NBA season despite some potential tension between him and head coach Monty Williams. Draftkings has still not raised his price, even with a matchup today against a small Los Angeles Clippers team and Cam Johnson questionable. These factors are likely to make Ayton massive chalk on Draftkings. However, given his lack of positional flexibility and the plethora of other Center options on this slate, Ayton is likely to be over-owned by the field.
  • With Darius Garland sidelined due to an eye injury, Caris Levert poses a very good value at just 5.8k on Draftkings. Levert has back to back games of 7+ assists and 4+ rebounds with Garland out. Provided that Levert can find his shooting stroke again, he is poised to smash this salary with increased usage in Garland's absence.
  • Despite scoring just 22.8 Draftkings points last game, Poole projects for about 20% ownership on tonight's slate. A decrease in his price and a favorable matchup against the Kings will have the field continuing to chase Poole's upside. However, even on a short slate, there are better places to go for value at the guard position (i.e. Caris Levert who is $100 cheaper).

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details:

Popular Play: Deandre Ayton

Popular player stats from the NBA Prop Tool

Price: $6,500/$7,000
Own%: 41.97%/40.11%

Deandre Ayton has opened the season strong, scoring 40.5 and 36.5 Draftkings points in the Suns first 2 games. Draftkings seemingly has no interest in raising his price and now he gets a matchup with a Clippers team that severely lacks size. Furthermore, Cam Johnson is questionable for this game, and if he were to miss Ayton would likely see even more usage.

Value Play: Caris Levert

Value player stats from the NBA Prop Tool

Price: $5,800/$5,600
5x%: 42.7%/55.0%

Caris Levert is starting for the Cavaliers with Darius Garland sidelined due to an eye injury and has been playing well in his absence. Levert has scored 27.3 (5.15x) and 35.5 (6.12x) Draftkings points to start the year for Cleveland. It doesn't seem like Draftkings has adjusted Levert's price appropriately to his role with Garland missing time. Levert has taken over playmaking duties for the Cavs in Garland's absence, with back to back games of 7+ assists.

Player to avoid in DFS: Jordan Poole

Player to avoid stats from the NBA Prop Tool

Price: $5,900/$6,000
LevX: -5.60/5.87

Jordan Poole is projected to be about 20% owned on tonight's slate despite scoring just 28 and 22.8 Draftkings points to start the season. Poole recorded just 7 points and 7 assists against Denver on Friday, but a matchup against the Kings combined with a decrease in price will have people going back to the well. Even on a 5 game slate, there are better places to go for value.

NBA DFS final thoughts

A nice little 5 game slate on Draftkings tonight is showing some obvious opportunities for leverage and direct pivots from overvalued players. Deandre Ayton projects to be mega chalk on Draftkings tonight due to being underpriced based on his role and matchup. However, Ayton is only Center eligible, and can therefore only fit in 2 spots on Draftkings. Due to this lack of positional eligibility, leverage can be created by paying up or down at the Center position. Paying up will give you players with massive upside at low ownership, while paying down will change your roster construction from the rest of the field.

Furthermore, it appears that Jordan Poole will be rostered as often as Caris Levert, despite a significant difference in projection. This creates another opportunity to get a leg up on your opponents who may be overvaluing Poole, while under-valuing Levert. Good luck tonight!

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