Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat
Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt, but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
- Kristaps Porzingis is going to be a popular play on both sites tonight. While he projects well and has solid upside he does make for an interesting fade in DFS. On Draftkings there are viable pivots in his price range and on Fanduel he has an outrageously negative LevX score.
- Chris Paul may not be a traditional “value” play, but he his simply too cheap on both sites. Paul is priced under $7.5k on both sites. Even at this stage in his career he has still shown the ability to clear 40 fantasy points. We will gladly take that upside at his price.
- Norman Powell is far from guaranteed to play heavy minutes. Additionally, this is a player who averaged less than a fantasy point per minute last season and is in a shooting slump to start this season. Once we combine that with his projected high ownership it’s clear that this is a spot we can look elsewhere.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Popular Play: Kristaps Porzingis
Kristaps Porzingis is projected to be one of the highest owned players in DFS tonight. Granted, when healthy he is averaging 1.32 FPPM (fantasy points per minute) and should be playing 35+ minutes tonight. However, at a price of $7.7k on Draftkings there are other players within that range that are also worth considering including CP3, Valanciunas, and CJ McCollum. Likewise, on Fanduel a fade might also be considered due to a LevX score of -31.72.
Value Play: Chris Paul
Chris Paul is still playing well even in the twilight of his HOF career. While he’s probably not going to score a ton of real life points he’s still putting up double-digit assists in the past two games in addition to a few rebounds and steals. His high basketball IQ allows him to contribute in a variety of ways which is great for DFS purposes. Additionally, you get the Curry rivalry narrative if you believe in that sort of thing. Considering the 40+ point upside CP3 still has he makes for a strong play at $7k/7.4k.
Player to avoid in DFS: Norman Powell
First, let it be known that Norman Powell actually grades out very, very well on Fanduel. If you are playing both sites you should get your exposure to Powell there. Secondly, while he grades out better, the assessment of him remains the same. Powell is a decent but not great fantasy point per minute player who has started the year shooting poorly. That said, his shooting averages are well below his career numbers so there is merit to playing him and hoping regression is in your favor tonight. Helping his cause is the fact that both Paul George and Marcus Morris are out so he should see an expanded role and opportunity.
NBA DFS final thoughts
At first glance it may seem like tonight presents a bevy of value. However, I would be cautious of a heavy stars and scrubs approach tonight. A lot of the perceived value is nowhere near as safe as they may seem. Lastly, Doncic is likely to be very popular tonight, however, at a price point of $11.1k you’re almost forced to play him with one of the aforementioned value plays. The question to ask yourself is: does Luka and a sub-$5k player have a significantly higher ceiling than two $7k-ish players? Even if they do, how does it compare in relative ownership? Good luck tonight!