Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt, but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• Giannis has a fantastic matchup tonight against the defense-less Brooklyn Nets. He is currently projected to be the most popular spend up option tonight, although that may change depending on news. A big decision tonight is going to come down to Giannis in the nuts spot versus LeBron with a usage bump.
• Josh Richardson is basically the same play as Norman Powell last night. Similar to Powell, Richardson is averaging around 0.87 FPPM. Likewise, he finds himself with expanded opportunity due to injury and a cheap price. The key difference is that while Powell was in the midst of a shooting slump, Richardson has been hot shooting 50% from the field and 47% from beyond the arc.
• Joshua Primo is another value option on the Spurs that projects to be popular. However, he doesn’t really see the same benefit as some of the other options. This is due to the fact that he’s primarily the backup to Tre Jones. This situation highlights the benefit to looking at NBA rotations to get a sense of who benefits when guys are out.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Popular Play: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Price: $11,200/$11,600
Own%: 15.1%/17.29%

Giannis is averaging almost 2 FPPM and now faces an abysmal Nets defense that is giving a 27% boost in fantasy production to opposing power forwards. Additionally, Khris Middleton remains out which should continue to lead to an increased usage rate. Lastly,  as bad as the Nets are on defense they do still have Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving and are very much capable of going blow for blow with Milwaukee thus keeping the game close and juicy for DFS purposes.

Value Play: Josh Richardson

Price: $3,900/$4,600
5x%: 56.5%/41.5%

Josh Richardson has seen somewhat of a resurgence in San Antonio. Much of this has been due to him being hot shooting the ball, particularly from deep. Despite the hot shooting, however, this is still a player averaging less than a fantasy point per minute. Therefore, we should temper expectations a little bit. That said, he does grade out as a very strong value play so it’s up to you to decide if today is the day the regression monster rears its ugly head.

Player to avoid in DFS: Joshua Primo

Price: $4,000/$4,500
LevX: -10.90/-4.83

Joshua Primo is a prime example of people overreacting to injury news. While yes, a rising tide lifts all ships, we should focus on those that stand to benefit the most. Devin Vassell is out tonight for the Spurs. When we dig into the rotation we can see that Primo has been coming in primarily when Tre Jones comes out and plays quite a few minutes on the court with Vassell. Therefore, we can conclude that it’s probably not Primo who is a direct beneficiary of this situation. When you combine that with his high projected ownership and low median projection this is an easy spot to fade in DFS.

NBA DFS final thoughts

One of the major keys tonight will be navigating the Spurs chalk. Likewise, the same can be said for Hornets value since both Terry Rozier and LaMelo Ball are out. In either case we should consider who stands to gain the most in addition to who is a strong value. On the high end we have Giannis in a smash spot, but we also have LeBbron with potentially no Westbrook. Make sure to monitor lineup news with the Lakers. If Westbrook misses, Lebron likely cuts into Giannis' ownership and is a strong play, but fade Patrick Beverly if he is anything close to chalk. Good luck tonight!