Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat
Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt, but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Desmond Bane is coming off an insane 57.3 Draftkings points performance against the Brooklyn Nets, and finds himself in another favorable matchup against the Sacramento Kings. Bane's newfound playmaking role and slate-breaking ability when his shot is falling give him a solid projection, especially on a 4 game slate. But is he worth 75%+ ownership?
- Andrew Wiggins grades out as a great value play on tonight's slate. While he is not extremely cheap, he is underpriced for the floor he provides given his role in this Golden State offense. Wiggins can get it done in all kinds of ways, whether it be scoring, rebounding, or through defensive stats like steals and blocks. Roster Wiggins with confidence tonight.
- Ben Simmons projects to be quite a popular option on tonight's slate. Please read that sentence again. While Simmons has showed upside in the past, that was over 2 years ago at this point, and this is clearly not the same player. Even on a small slate like tonight's, there are plenty of players to choose from that actually shoot the basketball. I would consider those players instead and allow the field to keep chasing Simmons's past performance.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Popular Play: Desmond Bane
Price: $7,000/$7,400
Own%: 76.28%/74.09%
If you like game logs, let me present to you Desmond Bane! Bane is coming off a ridiculous 38 point, 7 assist outing vs the Brooklyn Nets and now gets another favorable matchup against the Sacramento Kings. Bane has seemingly taken on more of a playmaking role this year for the Grizzlies this season, averaging 6 assists per game to start the year, up from just 2.7 last season. Additionally, Bane showed last game after shooting 14-21 from the field and 8-11 from 3, that he can put up monster scores when his shot is falling. With that being said, recency bias as well as a newfound playmaking role make it likely that Bane will be the highest owned player on tonight's slate.
Value Play: Andrew Wiggins
Price: $6,900/$7,900
5x%: 51.7%/41.7%
Andrew Wiggins shown very high floor in this Golden State offense, 5x'ing his salary in 3/4 games so far this season. He is averaging 21-6-3 as well as 2 steals and 1 block per game. Due to the system and the teammates around him, Wiggins gets to take high percentage shots, crash the glass, and wreck havoc on defense without having to force his hand on offense. Wiggins can pay off this salary in all sorts of ways.
Player to avoid in DFS: Ben Simmons
Price: $6,400/$5,800
LevX: -50.00/-79.49
Are we doing this again? Our good friend Ben Simmons is back, now less than $6,500, and projected for 60% ownership! The perceived upside of Simmons will likely be chased until the end of time, despite him only hitting 5x his salary once this season and attempting 20 total shots in 4 games. Not to mention that you have to actually be on the floor in order to accumulate fantasy points, and Simmons has now fouled out of 2 of the 4 games this year. Friends don't let friends play Ben Simmons, and friends REALLY don't let friends play chalky Ben Simmons. We are friends, don't do it.
NBA DFS final thoughts
On short slates like the one we have tonight, the better projected players can end up getting heavily outsized ownership. We are seeing this tonight with Desmond Bane, who is likely to be the highest owned player on the slate. While Bane projects well, you may find other options available with similar upside for a fraction of the ownership. Furthermore, Ben Simmons also projects for heavy amounts of ownership by the field, despite a poor projection and a poor start to the year. This creates an obvious leverage spot to take advantage of. Remember, friends don’t let friends play chalky Ben Simmons. Good luck tonight!