Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular players on the slate, popular roster construction, and potential pivots and leverage spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
- The highest-owned players tonight are projected to be Day'Ron Sharpe, Jaren Jackson Jr., Evan Mobley, Jabari Smith Jr., and Marcus Smart. Bane and JJJ are benefiting from situations in the Grizzlies' lineup. Similarly, Mobley should also receive a boost from a shorthanded Cavs lineup.
- Given the pricing and projected ownership of specific players in the data, a popular build strategy tonight will be one player above $8k, three mid-range players priced between $5k to $7k, and four value players priced below $5k. GPP strategies could include using this construction with lower-owned pivots, or rostering high-priced, high-ceiling players for a different build.
- A collection of low-owned guards stand out in the stud range with a combination of low-ownership and high-ceiling: Steph Curry, Trae Young, Cade Cunningham, and De'Aaron Fox. Additionally, Luka and Jokic both possess massive ceilings and will both be sub-10% owned tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jabari Smith Jr.
NBA DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
Jamal Murray (Midrange)
Jalen Brunson (Midrange)
Cade Cunningham (Stud)
Steph Curry (Stud)
Luka Doncic or Nikola Jokic (Premium)
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
The value plays in Jabari Smith Jr., Jeremy Sochan, and Day'Ron Sharpe are promising, suggesting that this may not be the best segment to diversify your lineup. However, both the midrange and top-tier segments have appealing alternatives if you maintain the popular roster structure. Jamal Murray, Jalen Brunson, Nikola Vucevic, and Fred Van Vleet are some of the standout players to consider as pivots. Furthermore, Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic present enticing high-ceiling choices for GPPs. Moreover, their premium price tags encourage a more unconventional roster configuration. Good luck and let's bake some bread!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.