Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt, but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

• Franz Wagner benefits from being one of the last remaining ball handlers for the Orlando Magic. Previously he has thrived when given increased usage and has a plus matchup against Hornets. He will be one of the most popular options tonight in DFS and for good reason.
• Deni Avdija has a median projection about 6x his price on both sites. Finding capable players under $5k who are going to get 25+ minutes is crucial to building strong DFS lineups if you want to fit the studs. Avdija grades out as a strong value that provides salary relief needed to fit some of the high upside options tonight.
• Josh Richardson finds himself in an identical spot as his last start two nights ago. However, both sites have priced him up fairly aggressively. Although he should still do well, unlike the previous start there are more viable pivots at his elevated price.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Popular Play: Franz Wagner

Price: $6,400/$6,600
Own%: 59.25%/59.33%

Due to the Orlando Magic backcourt being absolutely decimated by injury, Anthony, Suggs, Fultz, and Harris are all out tonight. This leaves the ball handling duties to a combination of Franz Wagner and RJ Hampton. You might think this benefits Hampton, but on the contrary, it is Franz Wagner who stands to benefit. Alas, this is nowhere near a sneaky take and Wagner is projected to be one of the highest owned players in DFS tonight. This is a classic situation of determining whether to play him based on how much chalk you’re eating elsewhere in your lineup.

Value Play: Deni Avdija

Price: $4,200/$3,800
5x%: 38.7%/67%

Deni Avdija has dealt with some foul trouble the past 2 games which has impacted his production, however, the underlying numbers still look promising for the young player. Accumulating fantasy points across the stat sheet is what we love for DFS. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble he should hit value and pay off his price on both sites.

Player to avoid in DFS: Josh Richardson

Price: $5,400/$4,800
LevX: -24.22/-39.47

From Wednesday 10/26/22: “Josh Richardson has seen somewhat of a resurgence in San Antonio. Much of this has been due to him being hot shooting the ball, particularly from deep. Despite the hot shooting, however, this is still a player averaging less than a fantasy point per minute.” All of this remains true except his price increase now has him in a range with more pivots. This is leading to a monstrously negative LevX score.

NBA DFS final thoughts

Interestingly, none of the expensive options tonight look to be garnering much ownership. If this is accurate it means we should expect a lot of balanced builds tonight. Additionally, there are a ton of situations to monitor that could lead to some strong value opening up. Therefore, make sure to have alerts on and an eye on late news. A good strategy may be building out a stars and scrub construction that can be swapped to in the event of late news. Good luck tonight!