Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat
Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt, but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Ja Morant is doubtful for the Grizzlies tonight and Tyus Jones is sitting at just $4,700 on Draftkings. The Grizzlies were a great team last year when Morant missed time, in large part to Jones. No doubt the field is aware of this, and thus aware of how underpriced he is for the role he’s stepping into.
- Jalen Smith is just $5,400 on Draftkings tonight and Myles Turner has been ruled out. Smith has 2 double-doubles and 5 blocks in 3 full games without Turner this season. Now in a matchup against the lowly defense and rebounding of the Brooklyn Nets, Smith projects as a great value play on tonight's slate
- With Ja Morant doubtful, usage should flow to Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane, and Dillon Brooks. Brooks is just $5,100 on Draftkings, and averaged 19 ppg when Morant missed time last year. However, Brooks is entirely reliant on scoring, and is one of the streakiest players in the league. Many will fall for Brooks’s alluring price tag in an increased role, but he is likely to be a massive bust if his shot isn’t falling.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Popular Play: Tyus Jones
Price: $4,700/$4,500
Own%: 55.49%/86.40%
Ja Morant is doubtful you say? Insert Tyus Jones. Jones averaged 13-7-3 on 30 mpg in 23 games without Ja Morant last season. Clearly Draftkings was not aware of Morant's possible illness as they left Jones at just $4,700 in a matchup against the Utah Jazz. With that being said, Jones is obviously far too cheap for the role he is stepping into and will likely be the highest owned player on the slate because of it.
Value Play: Jalen Smith
Price: $5,400/$6,000
5x%: 73.10%/60.10%
Well I had a whole paragraph written about Myles Turner and then he was ruled out 5 minutes after I finished… Classic. So let's pivot to his teammate Jalen Smith! Smith has 30+ Draftkings points in every game he's been healthy in this season without Myles Turner. Smith averages over 1 FPPM and is projected for 30+ minutes tonight at just $5,400. Furthermore, Indiana gets a matchup against a Nets team that is bottom 5 in defense and rebounding. Smith projected well with Turner expected to play, not with Turner ruled out he projects as a massive value.
Player to avoid in DFS: Dillon Brooks
Price: $5,100/$5,200
LevX: -34.51/-68.98
Ja Morant is doubtful you say? Let's not insert Dillon Brooks… Brooks is going to look like a great play to much of the field tonight in Morant's suspected absence. Brooks averaged 19 ppg last season in 20 games that Morant missed. However, he only shot 43% from the field and 29% from three. In addition, Memphis is a deep team, meaning Brooks may not get more than 30 minutes or have the usage he had last year without Morant. The field appears to be overconfident in Brooks's role with Morant out, despite the shake-ups in the Grizzlies roster over the off-season.
NBA DFS final thoughts
Perhaps the most important determining factor on tonight's slate will be the Grizzlies Guards. With Morant Doubtful, Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane, and Dillon Brooks are in line for increased usage. Bane is priced up enough to keep his ownership somewhat in check. On the other hand, Jones and Brooks are ridiculously cheap for the increase in role we expect them to get. The thing is however, Jones may have quite a high floor as Morant's direct replacement, but his lack of scoring ability may hinder the true ceiling you need from him to win a GPP.
There is a hard decision to make with Jones, but there shouldn't be much of one with Dillon Brooks. As you can see by Brooks's projected ownership and LevX scores, the field is greatly overestimating Brooks's ability to put up a GPP winning score. Even at just $5,100, Brooks is entirely reliant on scoring to accumulate points. If Brooks has a bad shooting night, (like he often does), he will kill roughly 50% of all lineups. As always, good luck tonight!
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