Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat
Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt, but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- With the Spurs missing Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sohan, and Josh Richardson to injury, as well as the release of Josh Primo, several Spurs players will be popping as value plays today. Doug McDermott is one of them, at just $4,100 and projected for 29 minutes as a likely starter. McDermott is underpriced for the boost in minutes and usage he is likely to see, and the field knows it.
- Another Spurs value play! As mentioned above, the Spurs are severely short on bodies for today’s game against the Timberwolves. With Vassell out and Primo released, the Spurs have essentially no ball-handlers outside of Tre Jones. Blake Wesley is likely to serve as Jones’s backup and handle the playmaking duties for the second unit. Moreover, in his first career game on Friday, Wesley was effective in limited minutes and is just $3,200 on Draftkings.
- Happy birthday to Devin Booker! With that being said, the birthday narrative may be in full effect with Booker projected for 50+% ownership by the field. Booker is far from cheap at $8,600 and while his usage gives him an extremely high floor, he is unlikely to completely break the slate. With so many pay-up options available, Booker is being extremely overvalued.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Popular DFS Play: Doug McDermott
Price: $4,100/$3,700
Own%: 38.15%/86.40%
The Spurs are without Devin Vassell, Josh Richardson, and Jeremy Sohan for today's game vs. Minnesota. With all of these wings banged up, McDermott is likely to draw the start today. At just $4,100 on Draftkings and likely to play 28+ minutes, McDermott will draw quite a bit of ownership. Furthermore, this game has a 238.5 total and should be played at a blistering pace.
DFS Value Play: Blake Wesley
Price: $3,200/$3,700
5x%: 82.20%/73.50%
Speaking of Spurs players, after the abrupt release of Josh Primo, Blake Wesley is set to takeover backup PG duties for San Antonio. Moreover, in just 15 minutes against Chicago on Friday, Wesley scored 10 points and added 4 assists, good for 16.5 Draftkings points at just $3,000. Now with the Spurs extremely short on bodies, Wesley could see more time and is only $3,200.
Player to avoid in DFS: Devin Booker
Price: $8,600/$8,900
LevX: -36.90/-68.98
The birthday boy? How dare I tell you to fade a birthday narrative! Yes it is Devin Booker's birthday, and yes he is being overvalued by the field. Booker has 3 games of 33+ real life points this year, however, he has barely 5x'd his salary in any of those games. We know Booker can fill it up, but $8,600 is a lot to pay for someone that is mostly reliant on scoring. Booker is averaging just 3 rebounds, 5 assists, and 1 steal per game this season. In addition, Booker projects to be 50+% owned on a slate with plenty of other pay-up options available.
NBA DFS final thoughts
There is a nice 7 game slate starting at 6:00 pm eastern time on both Fanduel and Draftkings tonight. I really enjoy these sized slates, especially with the field showing overconfidence in certain situations when other options are available. A main decision point on tonight’s slate will be how many Spurs is too many Spurs?, which seems to be a main decision point every night. Several Spurs project as good value tonight, but there are a couple things to consider first; What does this player's ceiling look like? Can he score enough to not just meet value, but win a GPP? The second, is what the hell is Greg Popovich going to do with his rotation? God help us.
Lastly, despite the notorious birthday narrative in full effect for Devin Booker, there are plenty of both direct and indirect pivots off of him at fractions of the ownership that project nearly as well if not better than Booker.
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