Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat
Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt, but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
Update 6:15 EST: Embiid has been ruled OUT. This has pushed up ownership on Melton, Harris, and Maxey. However, based on projections they all end up as negative LevX plays due to the projected ownership. Fred VanVleet is also OUT. This is pushing up ownership on Gary Trent and O.G. Anunoby specifically. Consequently, they both end up as high negative LevX plays. Therefore, Scottie Barnes and Siakam may be where you want to go instead.
- Isaiah Stewart was already slightly underpriced to being with. His ownership notwithstanding he is a strong DFS play with Jalen Duren out for tonight’s game. At a generally weak position you can eat this chalk and move on.
- Jalen Smith Is projected to be one of the highest owned players on the slate tonight. However, with Myles Turner back for Indiana the frontcourt gets a little bit more crowded. Even a slight hit to his production combined with his ownership is going to lead to a high negative LevX score.
- Jalen Smith is projected to be one of the highest owned players on the slate tonight. However, with Myles Turner back for Indiana the frontcourt gets a little bit more crowded. Even a slight hit to his production combined with his ownership is going to lead to a high negative LevX score.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Popular DFS Play: Isaiah Stewart
Price: $5,200/$5,600
Own%: 50.21%/53.11%
Isaiah Stewart played a season high in minutes last game and with Jalen Duren set to miss tonight’s game those minutes should be secure. Additionally, Stewart has been averaging about a fantasy point per minute. Moreover, at a price point of $5.2 on Draftkings and $5.6 on Fanduel Stewart is chalk you can feel fairly confident in rostering tonight in DFS.
DFS Value Play: Myles Turner
Price: $5,500/$6,800
5x%: 81.50%/72.30%
Myles Turner has an absurdly high likelihood of going 5X his price tonight. Additionally, he’s averaging well over a fantasy point per minute and gets a great matchup versus the defense-less Brooklyn Nets. The only potential concern here would be the additional big bodies of Jalen Smith and Isaiah Jackson in the Pacers rotation. Nonetheless, Turner still should do well and because of his ability to hit the outside shot he likely sees time on the court with either of the other bigs as well.
Player to avoid in DFS: Jalen Smith
Price: $5,500/$5,900
LevX: -29.16/-13.02
Jalen Smith has been a roller coaster to start the season going from absolutely burning the field as chalk to absolutely smashing when overlooked. Tonight not only does he project for massive ownership, but the Pacers front court is fully healthy. Despite a solid median projection at his ownership he really does nothing for your win equity. Additionally, there are several pivots in the same price range with similar projections at lower ownership.
NBA DFS final thoughts
Happy Halloween! The majority of lineups tonight are going to be a core of frontcourt value. Furthermore, they’ll likely prioritize at least one piece of the Charlotte Hornets. You can either eat that chalk and play a low owned high upside play, or conversely you can pivot off of those specific players while keeping the same construction. If you pivot off of the chalk value and mid-range, you probably want to play the chalk spend ups. The popular studs currently are Trae Young and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Good luck tonight!
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