Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular players on the slate, popular roster construction, and potential pivots and leverage spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points
- The highest-owned players tonight are projected to be Cam Thomas, Jalen Green, Anthony Davis, D'Angelo Russell, and Ben Simmons. Notably, Thomas and Green are making the most of their opportunities in their teams' lineups. Similarly, Anthony Davis has exceeded salary-based expectations in 3 of his first 4 games.
- A prominent roster strategy for tonight will be rostering one player priced above $8k, three mid-range players with prices ranging between $5k to $7k, and four value picks priced below $5k. In GPPs a wise tactic might be to maintain this structure but incorporate lesser-owned players. Alternatively, you can go with higher-priced players with tremendous upside to differentiate from the crowd.
- Trae Young, Luka Doncic, Jrue Holiday, and Terry Rozier stand out due to their combination of lower ownership and high ceilings. Additionally, high-upside players like Jayson Tatum and Julius Randle are expected to have ownership below 20%, presenting potential pivots for those looking to leverage unique roster builds tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Bones Hyland
Cam Thomas
Royce O'Neal
D'Angelo Russell
Jalen Green
NBA DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
Marcus Smart (Midrange)
Jonas Valanciunas (Midrange)
Alec Burks (Value)
Lonnie Walker IV (Midrange)
Giannis or Jokic (Premium)
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
The value options tonight are more volatile and spread out which is leading to a heavy focus on the midrange. Based on the Pivot Finder, Cam Thomas looks like good chalk while D'Angelo Russell looks fadeable in GPPs. Additionally, JVal and Ayton are both price and position pivots since most of the chalk midrange options are G/F. The Paydirt models are heavy on BKN/HOU/LAL/ATL as spots to target, as well as BOS/MIN in larger GPPs. Good luck and let's bake some bread!
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