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Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat 11.02.2022

Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt, but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

  • Alperen Sengun is projected to be the most popular C on both sites tonight. Projection nothwithstanding, there are a lot of similarly projected players in his price range. Addtionally, the amount of pivots makes it hard to justify playing him as chalk
  • Kevin Huerter is one of several beneficiaries of Fox being out tonight. Furthermore, Huerter is averaging just under a fantasy point per minute and should play around 35 minutes tonight. He is a fantastic pivot off of the chalk mentioned in the next paragraph.
  • Davion Mitchell projects to be one of the highest owned, if not the highest owned players in DFS tonight. D’Aaron Fox is out and it stands to reason that his direct back up should benefit immensely. Despite the increase in minutes and usage, however, Mitchell has a modest median projection and a relatively low ceiling.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details:

Popular DFS Play: Alperen Sengun

Price: $5,900/$6,300
Own%: 38.08%/27.01%

Alperen Sengun is finally starting to see some consistent run for the Rockets. While he has started the last 3 games, he’s still averaging less than 30 minutes a game. On the other hand, he is also averaging over a fantasy point per minute. There is still some value at his price but it’s hard to prioritize him at his projected ownership on a slate this size.

DFS Value Play: Kevin Huerter

Price: $5,500/$6,000
5x%: 53.20%/49.80%

Kevin Huerter gets all of the same benefits from the Fox injury as Davion Mitchell but will be a fraction of the ownership. Secondly, Huerter has the far better positional matchup. The Heat are allowing an 18% boost in fantasy production to opposing SF. Lastly, Huerter also doubles as a pivot off of chalk Josh Richardson as well.

Player to avoid in DFS: Davion Mitchell

Price: $4,200/$4,900
LevX: -44.29/-12.93

Davion Mitchell is projecting for absurdly high ownership with a bad matchup and a meh median projection. Additionally, there are two pivots on his team in Huerter and Barnes who will have significantly less ownership. This is a textbook “play in cash, fade in GPP” situation.

LevX and other metrics found in the NBA Range Of Outcomes simulations model

NBA DFS final thoughts

There’s a lot to like in the midrange tonight and consequently a balanced build will likely be popular. That being said, there are some elite spend ups tonight in Giannis and Luka. Finding a way to get to either one could lead to a slightly different roster construction while providing a high ceiling. Additionally, there are plenty of pivots to the questionable chalk so you can maintain a balanced roster construction if you go that route. Good luck tonight!

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