Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Klay Thompson is sub $6K on both sites tonight. Despite hitting 5x his salary just once in 7 games this season, there is no doubt the field will jam in someone with his upside at such a cheap price tag.
- Bol Bol has a 7 foot 8 inch wingspan, and is $6.2K on Draftkings tonight! I really hope other people are as excited about this as I am. With Bol starting and seeing north of 30 minutes per game in his last 2 games, he is underpriced on both sites. Moreover, Orlando faces Golden State tonight, who is giving a 23.61% FPPM boost to opposing Centers this season. If you were looking for a reason to play this short slate tonight, here is your reason.
- Jamal Murray, like Klay Thompson, is not someone you would expect to see at sub $6K on both sites for tonight's 2 game slate. Furthermore, Murray is coming off his best game of the season against the Lakers and many (85% of the field) will likely assume he is back to the old Jamal Murray that was consistently over $7,000. However, there is still uncertainty surrounding Murray's minutes and effectiveness, presenting an opportunity to take advantage of the field's overconfidence.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Popular DFS Play: Klay Thompson
Price: $5,500/$5,200
Own%: 85.00%/85.00%
A multiple time all star that is capable of scoring 60 on any given night at a measly sub $6k price-tag against Orlando on a 2- game slate? Hello chalk! There is no doubt that Klay Thompson has broken a slate or two in his day, but we have not seen that Klay in some time now. Thompson is averaging just 13-3-2 this season for Golden State in 26 minutes per game. Furthermore, he is only shooting 35% from the field and 30% from three. However, the volume is there, with an average of 14 field goal attempts and 9 three-point attempts per game. Despite a mediocre at best median projection, expect the field to jam in someone with Klay's upside at this cheap of a price.
DFS Value Play: Bol Bol
Price: $6,200/$5,800
5x%: 31.40%/51.0%
I’ve waited, seemingly my entire life, for the chance to say this: It’s Bol Bol szn! The legend himself, Bol Bol, in all of his 7’2” glory, is coming off back to back 30+ minute games in 2 starts for the Orlando Magic. Bol is averaging 1.1 FPPM so far this season, and has therefore crushed his sub $6K salary in back to back starts. Bol has not only been effective from a fantasy standpoint as a starter, but he is helping the Magic compete. I see no reason why they wouldn’t continue to start him, and he remains around the $6K mark on both sites.
Player to avoid in DFS: Jamal Murray
Price: $5,600/$5,600
LevX: -74.43/-58.40
Jamal Murray is just $5,600 on both sites for tonight's 2 game slate and therefore projects to be massive chalk. As I discussed with Klay, Murray has shown slate-breaking upside in years past. However, Murray, like Klay, is coming off a major injury, and is averaging just 14-3-3 to start the season. Furthermore, Murray is shooting 42% from the field and 33% from three in just 27 minutes per game. Murray did see 32 minutes last game against the Lakers and put up 21-5-4, but it only resulted in 34.5 Draftkings points. Until he shows that he is truly back to being fully healthy, I would advise being underweight this heavy of Jamal Murray chalk.
NBA DFS final thoughts
Jamal Murray and Klay Thompson both project to be massive chalk tonight. We have all seen the slate-breaking upside each possesses in the past, but coming off injury neither has shown that they are still capable of that upside. The sticker shock price tag of such esteemed players each being sub $6K will have the field jamming them in on tonight’s short slate. It’s tough to fade players with this much upside at cheap prices on a 2 game slate, but by limiting yourself to just one per lineup you can gain a ton of leverage on the field.
Lastly, Bol Bol is too cheap for his fantasy output and the minutes he is being given. He is also awesome. Play him, that is all.
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