Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular players on the slate, popular roster construction, and potential pivots and leverage spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points
- The highest-owned players tonight are projected to be Malcolm Brogdon, Toumani Camara, Jalen Williams, Shaedon Sharpe, and Xavier Tillman Sr. Notably, Brogdon and Camara will look to seize their opportunity in the absence of Scoot Henderson. Similarly, Jalen Williams, is likely to be a popular pick due to the massive usage to soak up with SGA sidelined tonight.
- With the given salaries and projected ownership, a prominent roster strategy for tonight will be rostering six mid-range players with prices ranging between $6k to $8k, and two value picks priced below $5k. For those participating in GPP tournaments, a wise tactic might be to maintain this structure but incorporate lesser-owned players like Michael Porter Jr. and Ben Simmons, or alternatively, select higher-priced players like Donovan Mitchell (stud)and Giannis Antetokounmpo (premium) with tremendous upside to differentiate from the crowd.
- Jalen Brunson, Tyrese Haliburton (Q), Jamal Murray, and Julius Randle stand out due to their combination of lower ownership and high ceilings. Additionally, high-upside players like Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic are expected to have ownership below 10%, presenting potential pivots for those looking to leverage unique roster builds tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Marcus Smart
Zach LaVine or DeMar DeRozan
Jalen Williams
Malcom Brogdon
Shaedon Sharpe
NBA DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
Jae Crowder (Value)
Delon Wright (Value)
DeAndre Ayton (Midrange)
Chet Holmgren (Midrange)
Luka or Jokic (Premium)
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
The strong point-per-dollar value in the midrange is leaving the stud and premium tier of players under-owned. This strong midrange is also less volatile than the chalk value options, therefore, the sub-$5k range is a place to differentiate your lineups. Additionally, targeting stud players ($8k-$10k) and premium players ($10k+) will inherently give you a different roster construction. The Paydirt models are heavy on CHI/POR/OKC/MEM as spots to target, however, these will be exceedingly popular. One potential way to target these spots is to just play the “other guys” at lower ownership such as Vuc, Ayton, Holmgren, and JJJ. Good luck and let's bake some bread!
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