Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Kevin Durant once again headlines tonight's NBA slate. After putting up 59.3 Draftkings points in just 33 minutes due to blowout, Durant is still far too cheap for the usage he commands without Kyrie. With that being said, Durant will be one of the highest owned players on the slate, and you will have to decide whether he is worth the ownership or not.
- With Anfernee Simons and Damian Lillard ruled out for the Portland Trailblazers tonight, Justise Winslow is slated to once again start at PG. Winslow was extremely productive in this same matchup last night, and projects to be a good value play again tonight.
- Rudy Gobert has entered health and safety protocols… again. With Gobert ruled out, Karl-Anthony Towns should step right back into the full time Center role that he played all of last season. However, the boost that Gobert's absence provides to Towns is being overestimated by the field.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Popular DFS Play: Kevin Durant
Price: $10,600/$10,600
Own%: 41.38%/49.64%
Amid all the controversy surrounding the Nets, KD has made it clear that all he wants to do is ball. Well, in his first game without Kyrie Irving he did just that. Durant posted a 33.3% usage rate that resulted in a final stat line of 28-9-11. This was good enough for 59.3 Draftkings points and Durant only played 33 minutes due to blowout. Durant has to do everything for this Nets team right now, and he will continue to be chalky at this price because of it.
DFS Value Play: Justise Winslow
Price: $4,900/$5,200
5x%: 49.30%/48.70%
Justise Winslow started at PG for the Blazers in Simons's absence just last night, and finished with a stat line of 12-9-9 in 32 minutes. This was good enough for 39.3 Draftkings points at just $4,300. Winslow is likely to start at PG again for Portland tonight, and he only received a $600 price bump from yesterday. Furthermore, the Trailblazers are facing the same exact Phoenix Suns team they played last night, making Winslow a solid value play once again on tonight's slate.
Player to avoid in DFS: Karl-Anthony Towns
Price: $8,900/$9,300
LevX: -31.38/-39.05
Rudy Gobert has been ruled out of tonight’s game after entering health and safety protocols earlier today… feels like I've heard that one before. Anyways, Karl-Anthony Towns will likely slide back to the Center position that he played all of last year. Towns is currently projected to be the highest owned player on tonight’s slate. However, Gobert was commanding less than a 15% usage rate on the year, and KAT still averaged less than 10 rpg last season as a full time Center. The field is overestimating the boost Gobert’s absence gives to KAT, and you should avoid making the same mistake.
NBA DFS final thoughts
Pretty interesting 7 game slate tonight. There is news we are still waiting on, including the status of Giannis and Trae Young.
With that being said, it appears that the field is overconfident in how much of a boost Gobert’s absence is giving to the rest of the team. Moreover, Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards project to be 2 of the 3 highest owned players on tonight’s slate. However, we saw this Wolves team without Gobert just last year, and their roles weren’t all that much different.
Make sure you are paying attention to the news, as this slate could be entirely flipped on its head in the next hour. Good luck tonight!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.