Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- With Bradley Beal entering health and safety protocols, Will Barton is far too cheap for his expected usage and minutes as Beal's replacement in the starting lineup.
- O.G. Anunoby has been crushing his salary recently, with 6x performances in 4 straight games. Now with Siakam ruled out with an adductor injury, and Fred Van-Vleet still questionable, Anunoby projects as a great value play on tonight's slate.
- As mentioned with Barton, Kristaps Porzingis should also benefit from Beal’s absence against Memphis tonight. Porzingis led the Wizards in usage rate less season when Beal missed time. However, Porzingis is projected to be massive chalk, and has underperformed for the most part so far this season.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Popular DFS Play: Will Barton
Price: $4,200/$4,500
Own%: 72.38%/58.51%
Bradley Beal, like Rudy Gobert, seems to find himself in health and safety protocols quite often. With Beal out, Will Barton is expected to start at SG for the Wizards. Beal's 25% usage rate is going to have to be replaced by someone, and the Wizards don't have many other options outside of Barton. Furthermore, Barton has shown both scoring and playmaking upside in the past, and is very cheap for his expected role + minutes.
DFS Value Play: O.G. Anunoby
Price: $6,200/$7,800
5x%: 54.20%/35.90%
O.G. Anunoby has been crushing his salary as of late, with 39 or more Draftkings points in 4 straight at $6,000 or less. Granted these games were without Fred Van-Vleet, who remains questionable for today's game. Regardless of FVV's status though, Pascal Siakam is now out for the next couple of weeks with an adductor strain. Anunoby should be one of the main beneficiaries of Siakam's absence, and Draftkings hasn't had the chance yet to raise his price accordingly.
Player to avoid in DFS: Kristaps Porzingis
Price: $7,900/$8,600
LevX: -48.94/-64.00
As mentioned in the Will Barton write-up, Bradley Beal has entered health and safety protocols once again and is out of tonight’s game vs. Memphis. Barton is likely to be a direct beneficiary of Beal’s absence given the positional similarities, but Kristaps Porzingis may receive the largest bump in usage on the team. When Beal missed most of last season, Porzingis led the team with a 31.2% usage rate. However, there is uncertainty as to how the Wizards will operate this season without Beal, and outside of a couple of favorable matchups against the Embiid-less Sixers, Porzingis has eclipsed 40 Draftkings points in just 1/7 games this season.
NBA DFS final thoughts
With some key players already ruled, the chalk on tonight’s short slate is going to condense even more than usual. Both Will Barton and Kristaps Porzingis project to be massive chalk in Bradley Beal’s absence, as both should receive increases in usage to help replace Beal’s 25% usage rate. Furthermore, with Pascal Siakam out and Fred Van-Vleet questionable, the Raptors may rival the Wizards in ownership percentages.
All these injuries have created some majorly mispriced players given their expected increases in role/minutes. When the chalk condenses like it will tonight, I suggest not trying to avoid all of it, but don’t play all of it together either. With several Wizards and Raptors players likely to be very high owned, you can get different by limiting the amount of players you take from these teams. Furthermore, avoid rostering players together that may eat into each other’s ceilings. Good luck tonight!
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