Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular players on the slate, popular roster construction, and potential pivots and leverage spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points
- The highest-owned players tonight are projected to be Goga Bitadze, Reggie Jackson, Klay Thompson, Domantas Sabonis, and Victor Wembanyama. Significantly, Bitadze and Jackson are set to capitalize on the extra minutes with key teammates absent. Similarly, Sabonis is likely to be a popular pick due to the increased role he'll have with De'Aaron Fox out tonight.
- With the given salaries and projected ownership, a popular roster construction for tonight will involve rostering five mid-range players, with prices ranging between $5k to $7k, including the likes of Aaron Gordon, Zach LaVine, and DeMar DeRozan, paired with two value picks priced below $5k.
- Players like Jalen Brunson, Tyrese Haliburton, Paolo Banchero, and Franz Wagner are noteworthy due to their blend of moderate ownership and high ceiling potentials. In addition, players such as Zion Williamson and Cole Anthony are expected to have ownership below 15%, representing valuable pivots for those aiming to craft distinct roster constructions tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Reggie Jackson
Klay Thompson
Al Horford
Goga Bitadze
Victor Wembanyama
NBA DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
Marcus Sasser (Value)
Naz Reid (Value)
Ausar Thompson (Midrange)
Fred VanVleet (Midrange)
Luka or Jokic (Premium)
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
The strong point-per-dollar value in the midrange is leaving the stud and premium tier of players under-owned. While there are a lot of strong options in the midrange, ownership is concentrating on just a few spots leaving us with a bevy of pivot options. Additionally, targeting stud players ($8k-$10k) and premium players ($10k+) will inherently give you a different roster construction. The Paydirt models are heavy on DET/ORL/BOS/LAL as spots to target. Notably, ORL and BOS will be popular but DET and LAL should provide some high-upside, low-owned players to focus on. Ausar Thompson and Anthony Davis stand out from those teams respectively. Good luck and let's bake some bread!
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