Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Kendrick Nunn projects to be massive chalk on both DFS sites tonight. On the one hand Lebron James is out, as well as Lonnie Walker IV. On the other hand Nunn is awful. You gain no leverage, he doesn’t project well, and the matchup isn’t great.
- Terry Rozier grades out as a solid value on both sites. While he’s not particularly cheap, he is still underpriced relative to his upside and increased role. Additionally, he will be lower owned now that some questionable value has opened up at his same position.
- Kyle Anderson is going to be chalky. If that alone doesn’t deter you, he also has the worst LevX score on Fanduel by more than 20 points. Additionally, there are no less than 10 other players in his price range that have better median projections on Draftkings.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
DEM Overview
What is interesting to note is that no chalk is coming from any of the top FPPM matchups tonight. In fact, much of the chalk tonight is coming from slightly negative matchups. This is definitely something we can use to our advantage. While some players may be able to offset the matchup with increased opportunity and usage, it’s important to consider the situation they are up against. Additionally, if they are already a mediocre FPPM producer a negative matchup is certainly something you can avoid if that particular play is going to be popular,
Popular DFS Play: Kendrick Nunn
Price: $3,000/$3,500
Own%: 62.64%/70.97.51%
The Lakers are a bad team. The Jazz are a slightly negative DFS matchup to every position other than SF. Kendrick Nunn is not a bright spot on a bad team, nor is he a SF. Additionally, he is projected to be over 60% owned on both sites. While he could’ve also been written up in the player to avoid section, he projects to be the most popular so here we are.
DFS Value Play: Terry Rozier
Price: $7,700/$7,900
5x%: 56.90%/57.40%
LaMelo Ball and Gordan Hayward remain out for the Hornets while Cody Martin is doubtful to play. Terry Rozier has taken full advantage of the opportunity this season averaging well over a fantasy point per minute along with a 33% usage rate. While the Wizards aren’t the greatest matchup, they are on the second half of a back-to-back and will be without Bradley Beal tonight. Scary Terry should have little resistance from a DFS perspective.
Player to avoid in DFS: Kyle Anderson
Price: $4,100/$3,600
LevX: 5.32/-23.89
Rudy Gobert will be out of action tonight for Minnesota which should put Kyle Anderson back into the starting lineup. In this same spot last game Anderson played 30 minutes and finished with 35.25 Draftkings points. However, despite the increase in minutes Anderson still has a median projection equal to or less than multiple other players in his price range on both sites. Coupled with this middling projection is his high ownership resulting in a significantly negative LevX score. This is certainly not a spot you need to lock on a 15-game slate.
NBA DFS final thoughts
Do not feel pressured to play volatile chalk tonight. While a slate this large can seem overwhelming, it does provide us with ample leverage opportunities. Despite the sheer amount of options, it looks like there will be some highly concentrated spots making pivot decisions easy. Remember that chalk isn’t inherently bad either, you’ll likely still want to eat some pieces depending on the contest size. Good luck tonight!
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