Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular players on the slate, popular roster construction, and potential pivots and leverage spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
- The highest-owned players for tonight's games are projected to be Jordan Hawkins, Kelly Olynyk, Gordon Hayward, Malcolm Brogdon, and LaMelo Ball. Notably, all of these popular options are set to benefit from key teammates being out of the lineup for their respective teams.
- With the salaries and projected ownership outlined, a dominant strategy for roster construction tonight will likely include four value players under $5k, complemented by two mid-range players and two studs. Those aiming for success in GPP tournaments might want to consider this approach but also include less commonly selected players such as Killian Hayes and Mitchell Robinson. Additionally , you can consider splurging on top-tier talents like Luka Doncic and Joel Embiid.
- Players like Tyrese Haliburton, LeBron James, and Rudy Gobert offer a mix of lower ownership and and high-ceilings, making them appealing for large GPPs. Moreover, elite performers such as Luka and Embiid are anticipated to have ownership less than 10%, providing attractive options for those looking to build a unique roster construction.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
NBA DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
Killian Hayes (Value)
Dario Saric (Value)
Russell Westbrook (Midrange)
Bam Adebayo (Stud)
Luka or Embiid (Premium)
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
The value plays tonight mostly look like strong options considering both median projection and ceiling value. Therefore, a better place to differentiate your lineups might be in the midrange or stud range. Both of these price ranges have multiple players with similar projections, however, ownership is concentrating a few select spots. The Paydirt models are heavy on DET/MIL/LAL with splash of MIN/NOP as spots to target. Notably, the models are focusing on lower-owned players from these teams such as Killian Hayes and Jonas Valanciunas. Good luck and let's bake some bread!
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- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
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