Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Myles Turner is likely to be the highest owned center on both sites. While this may seem point chase-y, he is underpriced for his ceiling. The main issue, similar to Cam Payne, is there is a pretty clear pivot with similar projection and less ownership.
- Bobby Portis averages well over a fantasy point per minute with all of Giannis/Jrue/Middleton off the court. Additionally, he fills a typically weak PF spot in DFS rosters. He grades out as the one of the strongest values on both sites tonight.
- Cam Payne is projected to be massive chalk tonight with Chris Paul ruled out. While he should benefit from the increased opportunity, the main issue is his price point. There is another comparable guard tonight with a similar median projection who looks to be less owned
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
DEM Overview
We are again seeing very little ownership coming from the teams allowing the largest FPPM boosts. For example both Ja Morant and Jayson Tatum project for less than 10% ownership despite having the two top FPPM matchups on the slate. Sadly there isn’t a lot of chalk facing the tougher teams for us to take advantage of. Although it’s noteworthy that both Malik Monk and Alperen Sengun still project well despite the negative overall matchup.
Popular DFS Play: Myles Turner
Price: $5,700/$6,600
Own%: 44.46%/51.84%
Myles Turner is coming off of a monster performance that made him a must play to have any shot at taking down GPPs. He played over 35 minutes in that last game and a matchup with Jokic should secure his minutes once again barring foul trouble. Turner, however, projects to be the highest owned center on both sites. If you don’t want to chase a ceiling performance at massive ownership, both Brook Lopez and Alperen Sengun are viable pivots.
DFS Value Play: Bobby Portis
Price: $6,800/$5,900
5x%: 74.70%/83.70%
Bobby Portis has the potential for massive usage with the Bucks big 3 out tonight. He’s averaging almost 1.5 FPPM in this scenario and should see all the minutes he can handle tonight. Coupled with the fact that he’s underpriced for his ceiling tonight it’s really hard to get away from him. Additionally, he has positional flexibility at PF/C. This may just be a spot to eat the chalk and move on.
Player to avoid in DFS: Cam Payne
Price: $4,300/$4,600
LevX: -32.67/-34.76
Cam Payne should move into the starting lineup for the Suns tonight with CP3 out. This is leading to him being projected to be one of the highest owned players in DFS. Interestingly enough, Devin Booker also stands to benefit for all of the same reasons and yet is projected to be under 20% owned. In addition to this leverage play on his own team, Payne also has a price range pivot in Malik Monk. All of this results in Payne being a fine play, but not necessarily a building block tonight.
NBA DFS final thoughts
Be very careful about the amount of chalk you are absorbing into your lineups tonight. Payne, Portis, Turner, Jevon Carter are likely going to be the highest owned core of players so make sure you’re adding some low owned plays if including that group. Most of the high end seems to be getting completely overlooked with no player above $9k (Draftkings) projected to be over 10% owned outside of Booker and Durant. There is a lot of leverage to be gained by playing any of these low-owned, high-upside options. Good luck tonight!
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