Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Desmond Bane continues to see his price rise but he’s also been over 45 fantasy points in 5 of the last 8, including a 50 burger last game. His strong performance this season coupled with Minnesota being a top team to attack based on FPPM boosts gives plenty of reason for him to ba a popular DFS play on both sites tonight
- Brook Lopez will be the forgotten man once again based on ownership projections. He has low-key been fantastic this season and provides leverage off of the more popular Bucks. Additionally, outside of Jokic center isn’t a particularly strong position tonight.
- Jevon Carter is coming off a massive performance that is going to inflate his ownership even higher. While the situation remains the same with Giannis and Jrue out, we shouldn’t be expecting back to back outlier performances. Carter likely still does well, but there are pivots at his increased price point tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
DEM Overview
Tonight we will finally see some chalk against the top FPPM-friendly teams. Desmond Bane projects to be popular against the Timberwolves, as well as the Bucks value versus the Spurs. However, the top DFS matchup from a FPPM perspective is against the Pistons and the Knicks players are all carrying low ownership. Likewise, the Lakers are also a team to attack but very few people are going to play Kings in DFS tonight.
Popular DFS Play: Desmond Bane
Price: $8,100/$8,100
Own%: 32.17%/44.83%
Desmond Bane has the 2nd highest FPPM rate of any SG on the slate tonight and gets a favorable matchup against Minnesota. Additionally, Bane has SG/SF eligibility which provides some nice roster flexibility when constructing lineups. Bane is not only going to be popular but has also seen a price increase up to $8.1k on both sites. There are some definite pivots in this price range if you’re uncomfortable with the ownership.
DFS Value Play: Brook Lopez
Price: $6,300/$6,700
5x%: 52.60%/58.40%
While part of Brook Lopez’s fantasy explosion last game was due to five blocked shots, he still took 23 shots and played well over 30 minutes in regulation. Additionally, he was significantly lower owned than both Jevon Carter and Bobby Portis. Tonight Lopez once again projects to be the lowest owned player of those three and provides both excellent value and leverage.
Player to avoid in DFS: Jevon Carter
Price: $5,300/$5,100
LevX: -45.98/-48.00
Jevon Carter absolutely smashed in the Bucks last game. However, this was with 44 minutes of playing time due to OT, as well as an outlier FPPM performance. In the Bucks previous game Carter had around a 32% usage rate which likely remains similar tonight. But whereas last game he finished with a 1.39 FPPM rate, his average rate with Giannis and Jrue off the court is closer to 1.23. Likewise, we should also not be projecting him to play another 44 minutes. With those adjustments, as well as his price increase, Carter remains a strong DFS play but not a “lock” by any means.
NBA DFS final thoughts
The aforementioned Jevon Carter was labeled as a player to avoid. However, this does not equate to this player not being expected to perform well. The reason for this comes down largely to ownership and the players around him. Carter is expected to be around 65% owned and there are six players in his price range with similar median projections. If you believe that Carter outscores all six of those other players then you should play him. However, if you play one of those other six and they outscore Carter you’ve now moved past approximately 65% of the field in GPPs. This same logic can be applied anytime we have a chalk option with similarly projected pivots. Good luck tonight!
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