Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- With Ja Morant and Desmond Bane both doubtful, Tyus Jones is about as underpriced as it gets. At sub $4k on Draftkings and stepping into massive minutes and usage, Jones may approach the highest levels of ownership we've seen on any player all season.
- In the absence of essentially the entirety of the Memphis Grizzlies team, John Konchar should see a season high in minutes as well as increased usage. At nearly the dead min salary on both sites, Konchar projects as a nice value on tonight’s slate.
- How many times has massive-chalk Dillon Brooks worked? I would bet that it fails more times than it succeeds. With Brooks projecting to be owned by roughly 2/3s of the field tonight, fading him will give you massive leverage, and the potential to avoid a snowflake that 66% of the field will have.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
DEM Overview
We get a couple teams on both the high and low ends of the DEM sheets for tonight's slate. The Lakers and Timberwolves have been giving great boosts to opponents fantasy production all season. Their is uncertainty with the Cavs injury situation, but with the ownership condensing elsewhere, some players from both them and the Nets will likely be overlooked. On the other hand, Cleveland, Brooklyn, Utah, and Philadelphia have given significant negative boosts to their opponent's fantasy production all season. With Utah playing vs Philadelphia, try to minimize your exposure to that unfriendly game environment.
Popular DFS Play: Tyus Jones
Price: $3,600/$4,500
Own%: 70.00%/70.00%
With Ja Morant and Desmond Bane both doubtful for tonight's contest, let me introduce Tyus Jones! This feels like deja vu. Last time Ja Morant was out Tyus Jones put up 45.8 Draftkings points… and that was with Desmond Bane. This is as close to a lock button as it gets in DFS.
DFS Value Play: John Konchar
Price: $3,400/$4,100
5x%: 63.40%/52.00%
Tonight’s entire slate will center around the Memphis Grizzlies. With Ja Morant and Desmond Bane both expected to be out, players like John Konchar should see a lot more minutes as well as increased usage. Konchar can be effective when he sees time, especially on the boards. Furthermore, with how thin the Grizzlies are tonight, Konchar should also see increased usage on the offensive end, and is nearly the dead minimum. Konchar is a good value on both sites tonight.
Player to avoid in DFS: Dillon Brooks
Price: $5,500/$5,300
LevX: -18.28/-29.08
Dillon Brooks is likely to lead the Grizzlies in both minutes and usage tonight, as he loves to shoot when given permission. With Morant and Bane both doubtful, and Brooks at sub $6,000, there is no doubt he will be one of the highest owned players on tonight’s slate. However, Dillon Brooks is extremely dependent on scoring in order to accumulate fantasy points, and he’s one of the streakiest players in the whole league. Fading Brooks is an awesome way to be contrarian tonight.
NBA DFS final thoughts
This entire slate essentially rides on the Memphis Grizzlies, thus why this entire article is focusing on them. With Morant and Bane unlikely to play, literally every single Memphis player is underpriced for the increase in minutes/usage they are likely to see. Be consciences of how you are building lineups tonight, eliminate negative correlation among Grizzlies and remember that the entire field will be rostering a ton of Grizzlies players. With this information in mind, you can find ways to leverage this to your advantage. Good luck tonight!
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