Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular players on the slate, popular roster construction, and potential pivots and leverage spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points
- The highest-owned players for tonight's games are projected to be Bogdan Bogdanovic, Robert Covington, Saddiq Bey, De'Andre Hunter, and Jordan Clarkson. Notably, Trae Young is OUT for ATL which is inflating ownership on the rest of the Hawks players.
- With the salaries and projected ownership outlined, a dominant strategy for roster construction tonight will likely include 4 value players, complemented by 2 mid-range players and a stud. With the budget allowed, allocating funds towards high-performing stars like Luka or Anthony Davis in lieu of Jokic/Embiid brings a combination of lower ownership and equally high-scoring potential.
- Players such as Tyrese Maxey and Bam Adebayo present low owned, high-upside potential. Additionally, midrange options like Clint Capela and Bennedict Mathurin offer promising pivot opportunities as well. Keep an eye on Lakers news as Rui Hachimura becomes a strong value play if Lebron sits.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Bogdan Boganovic
De'Andre Hunter
Robert Covington
Saddiq Bey
Jordan Clarkson
NBA DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
Rui Hachimura* (Value)
Jaime Jaquez Jr. (Value)
Mark Williams (Midrange)
Tyrese Maxey (Stud)
Luka or AD (Premium)
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
Atlanta value is going to be massive chalk and you should expect to see at least 3 Hawks in a lot of lineups. An easy way to take still take advantage of situation while getting different is to simply play the other Hawks such as Capela/Okongwu/Jalen Johnson and hope additional usage goes to the front court. Additionally, you can also limit the number of Hawks in your lineup and limit to max-1 value paired with Dejounte Murray. Furthermore, Robert Covington is far from a must-play despite the projected ownership. The Paydirt models are heavy on DET/POR/PHI/ATL as spots to target. Notably, the models are focusing on the “other guys” from the chalk spots such as Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, and Dejounte Murray. Good luck and let's bake some bread!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.