Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Steph Curry should be a popular spend up tonight with the plethora of value options available. He also gets a good matchup versus the Spurs who are near the top of FPPM boosts allowed. While his median projection and ceiling may not be as high as Giannis, he does come in over $2k cheaper.
- Malachi Flynn projects to be the highest owned player on both sites tonight. Despite the massive ownership it’s hard to knock the play as he gets a phenomenal matchup. This may be a night to just take the “free square”.
- Thaddeus Young will be another popular value from the Raptors tonight. In addition to being awful against PGs the Pistons are about equally as bad versus PFs. They are giving up a 20% FPPM boost, however, despite the matchup Young still has a pedestrian median projection which is concerning.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
DEM Overview
Toronto chalk night, Toronto value night, and a great matchup against the Pistons. Detroit remains a top team to target in DFS which is going to make it hard to get away from the high owned Toronto plays tonight. Additionally, we have a popular Steph Curry versus the Spurs who are also near the top of the DEM sheets. When this is the case one thing to consider is digging into the position based DEM matchups and seeing which specific players stand to benefit the most from the overall positive matchup. For example, SG/SF/C all having negative boosts versus the Pistons despite the overall matchup being positive.
Popular DFS Play: Steph Curry
Price: $10,200/$10,600
Own%: 48.12%/32.64%
Steph Curry gets a plus matchup on the 2nd leg of a back to back. While he did play 37 minutes last night, Klay Thompson is out so he should have plenty of usage. However, Curry will be far from sneaky as he projects to be the most popular spend up option today. That said, he also has the 2nd highest median projection on the slate. Despite that, there are viable pivots at the high end if this is the spot you want to get different.
DFS Value Play: Malachi Flynn
Price: $3,200/$3,800
5x%: 67.20%/60.10%
Malachi Flynn played 23 minutes last game with FVV and Siakam out. Not only do those two remain out tonight, but Gary Trent Jr. will sit as well. Additionally, Flynn gets one of the best possible matchups for PGs versus the Detroit Pistons. With a price under $4k on both sites Flynn is a solid building block for DFS lineups tonight.
Player to avoid in DFS: Thaddeus Young
Price: $3,900/$5,100
LevX: -15.54/-10.69
Thaddeus Young also should continue to benefit from the injury situation in Toronto. He played 34 minutes in the last game and should see a similar number tonight. However, he makes for a far better play on DK than on FD where he is priced up to $5.1k. Unfortunately he doesn’t have a terribly impressive median projection and has a negative LevX score on both sites.
NBA DFS final thoughts
Most lineups tonight are going to have 3-4 Raptors and at least one $10k plus player. Sometimes the easy way to leverage the stars and scrubs construction is to go balanced instead. However, that’s easier to do when the chalk value is shaky and tonight it looks fairly solid. Therefore, another way to go about it may be to just emulate the chalk construction but just find a few pivots in the mid-range or high end. Good luck tonight!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.