Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Ja Morant should have a monster usage rate without Desmond Bane. He’s averaging close to 1.5 FPPM this season and that will likely increase with the usage bump. Consequently, he will be very popular on both sites tonight.
- Obi Toppin has been averaging just over a fantasy point per minute this season and should play between 20-25 minutes tonight. There’s not a ton of ceiling here, but at $3,900 on both sites he should hit 5x with no issue.
- Jordan Clarkson has always been a great scorer. Not only is he averaging around 18 PPG, but he is also averaging career highs in rebounds and assists. While this addition to his DFS output should help make him less volatile, we’re not getting him at much of a discount.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
DEM Overview
The New York Knicks are atrocious defensively right now. Understandably, the Utah Jazz are projected to be some of the highest owned players tonight. However, the Spurs are arguably just as bad and no Blazer projects to be all highly owned against them other than Jerami Grant. Looking at the worst FPPM matchups we see that the Brooklyn Nets have had a complete 180 and have gone from a team to consistently attack to one we may want to consider avoiding.
Popular DFS Play: Ja Morant
Price: $10,100/$10,000
Own%: 61.49%/70.00%
Ja Morant has a usage rate over 40% with Bane off the court. Despite the matchup overall being negative, New Orleans is giving up a 10% boost in points to SG, and a slight FPPM boost to PG. So however you want to consider Morant, he actually should be seeing a slight boost in some regard. The biggest issue with Morant tonight is simply his ownership. He is projected to be over 60% owned on both sites which is nearly 40% higher than the next stud play.
DFS Value Play: Obi Toppin
Price: $3,900/$3,900
5x%: 40.10%/50.20%
The good news is that Obi Toppin has gone over 19 fantasy points in four of the last six games. The bad news is that simply exceeding 19 fantasy points doesn’t do much for a DFS lineup. Additionally, he’s $3.9k so it’s not as though he’s min priced. That said, he is still a strong bet to go 5x but ceiling expectations should be tempered.
Player to avoid in DFS: Jordan Clarkson
Price: $6,300/$6,200
LevX: -24.99/-10.69
Jordan Clarkson should have double-digit shot attempts, a solid usage rate, and has a great matchup. So why would he avoid him? The issue here is price. At his price range not only is he not even the highest projected player, but there are five other players within a 3 point median projection. For those reasons it just presents a great place to pivot.
NBA DFS final thoughts
Knicks versus Jazz top matchup is certainly a throwback to those raised in the 90s. A three Jazz + Toppin build will likely be very popular tonight, so simply limiting exposure to that game is one way to get different. As always, pivoting from the chalk stud is another way to differentiate in GPPs. With 5 games and condensed chalk it doesn’t take much to gain leverage on the field. Good luck tonight!
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