Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- With Luka Doncic out tonight for rest reasons, Spencer Dinwiddie is likely the lead beneficiary to pick up the 37.7% usage that Luka is leaving behind. Dinwiddie is massively underpriced for the increased role he’s stepping into and will be one of the highest owned players on tonight’s slate.
- With Bam Adebayo sidelined tonight due to a knee issue, Dwayne Dedmon should start at center for the Heat tonight and see a major uptick in minutes from the measly 12.1 mpg he averages this season. Dedmon has proven to be effective on a per minute basis, so the increase in minutes in combination with his nearly dead minimum price tag makes him a great value play on both sites tonight.
- As I mentioned with Dinwiddie, Luka Doncic being ruled out tonight leaves a massive 37.7% usage void that needs to be filled. Given the lack of ball-handling options the Mavericks have, Tim Hardaway Jr. should see a huge spike in usage. However, Hardaway is mostly a one-trick pony, and will be reliant on hit shot falling to accumulate fantasy points.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
DEM Overview
Nikola Jokic is one of the many stars that have already been ruled out for tonight's slate. Not only will his absence open up value on the Nuggets, but they also draw a matchup tonight against the New York Knicks. As you can see in the screenshot above, the Knicks are giving a league high 7.94% FPPM boost to opponents. With all the value available elsewhere on this slate, the Nuggets may go overlooked to an extent in the best matchup they could ask for, while also missing their best player and his 24.9% usage rate
Popular DFS Play: Spencer Dinwiddie
Price: $7,100/$6,800
Own%: 59.73%/70.00%
With the Mavs on a back to back and having played several games over the last week, Luka Doncic is taking a rest day today. Draftkings obviously couldn't predict this so Dinwiddie is now majorly underpriced for the role he's stepping into. Luka has the highest usage rate in the league at 37.7%, and the Mavs really don't have any other ball-handlers to fill his role outside of Dinwiddie. Expect Dinwiddie to be extremely popular tonight.
DFS Value Play: Dwayne Dedmon
Price: $3,400/$3,500
5x%: 75.80%/75.00%
Bam Adebayo had been ruled out of tonight's game vs the the Raptors due to a knee issue. Dwayne Dedmon is in line to get the start in his absence and should see a major uptick in minutes. Dedmon averages more than 1 FPPM and is nearly the dead minimum. Given the increase in minutes and Dedmon’s effectiveness on a per minute basis, he projects to be a fantastic value play on both sites tonight.
Player to avoid in DFS: Tim Hardaway Jr.
Price: $4,000/$4,500
LevX: -26.01/-16.00
As mentioned with Dinwiddie, Luka is out tonight for rest reasons. After losing Brunson in free agency, the Mavs did nothing to add more ball-handling to their team, leaving Dinwiddie and Tim Hardaway Jr. as essentially the only 2 people remaining on the team than can fill Luka's 37.7% usage void.
The difference between Hardaway and Dinwiddie is that Hardaway is likely still only going to see an increase in shot attempts, and won't be picking up the slack with rebounding and assists. This leaves us with a common situation, Hardaway is clearly severely mispriced, but he is almost entirely reliant on scoring, and if his shot isn't falling more than half the field with likely have a snowflake in their lineups. Moreover, you can create massive leverage by pivoting away from Hardaway tonight.
NBA DFS final thoughts
There has been tons of injury news already for tonight’s slate and there is no doubt more to come. However, we may already know the most important piece of news as it pertains to tonight’s slate. With Luka Doncic already ruled out for rest reasons, his league-leading 37.7% usage rate will need to be filled by the complimentary Mavs players.
Given that Tim Hardaway Jr. and Spencer Dinwiddie are perhaps the last remaining Mavs players capable of dribbling, they are severely underpriced for the usage they will soak up in Doncic’s absence and they will be the highest owned players on the slate. Furthermore, one way to be unique tonight would be not pairing both of these players together in the same lineup. The combinatorial ownership of Dinwiddie and Hardaway Jr. will be high given their prices, but they should eat into each other's ceilings, and if one explodes the other is less likely to. Good luck tonight!
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