Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular players on the slate, popular roster construction, and potential pivots and leverage spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points
- The highest-owned players for tonight's games are projected to be Collin Sexton, Malaki Branham, Tobias Harris, De'Anthony Melton and Michael Porter Jr. Curiously, there are no injury situations to explain the high ownership on Sexton, Harris, and Melton.
- A popular strategy for roster construction tonight will likely include 2 value players, complemented by 4 mid-range players and a stud. Allocating funds towards high-performing stars like LaMelo or Anthony Davis in lieu of Jokic/Embiid brings a combination of lower ownership and equally high-scoring potential. Furthermore, focusing on pivot plays in the midrange should be a priority.
- Players such as De'Aaron Fox and Trae Young present low owned, high-upside potential. Additionally, midrange options like Cole Anthony and Bilal Coulibaly offer promising pivot opportunities as well. Keep an eye on Cavs news as Mitchell and/or Garland sitting would be a boost to multiple players.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Malik Branham
Terance Mann
De'Anthony Melton
Tobias Harris
Nikola Jokic
NBA DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
Bilal Coulibaly (Value)
Naji Marshall (Value)
Kevin Huerter (Midrange)
Trae Young (Stud)
Anthony Davis (Premium)
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
There is a considerable amount of fragile chalk tonight. Moreover, many of the players projecting for high ownership are neither underpriced, nor benefitting from injury. Thankfully, this makes decisions easier in regards to finding pivots. Additionally, you can use rules to limit the amount of chalk options you get in lineups such as max-1 Melton/Tobias. The Paydirt models are heavy on NYK/ORL/PHI/CLE/SAC as spots to target. Notably, guys like Immanuel Quickley and Naji Marshall look like strong GPP pivot plays. Good luck and let's bake some bread!
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