Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Update 5:43 PM EST: Gabe Vincent has been ruled out. This is a bump to the remaining Heat. Lowry, Strus, Caleb Martin are all going to be very popular and everything that was written about Vincent pertains to them as well.
Main Points:
- Gabe Vincent is going to be a fixture in most DFS lineups tonight. The Miami Heat are without Butler, Herro, and Bam so Vincent should have a ton of usage. Additionally, he shouldn’t meet a ton of resistance from the Wizards and even in the event of a blowout he should get run.
- Bones Hyland is in line for increased minutes and usage with no Jokic and no Murray. He is an excellent value on both sites tonight. While Hyland’s ownership will likely be sky high, there are other ways to differentiate yourself in DFS without sacrificing as much point-per-dollar value
- The Knicks are giving up a huge FPPM boost to opposing teams. However, a big part of that boost is due to getting torched by opposing PGs. While this makes Steph Curry a strong play tonight, it’s likely to inflate ownership on the other Warriors as well.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
DEM Overview
Another night and the New York Knicks still are awful defensively. This makes Steph Curry an appealing spend up tonight. However, there are a couple of equally good spots getting overlooked. The Lakers are even worse but there’s not much buzz about the Pistons. Similarly, Houston and Indiana are both bad, getting overlooked, and playing each other. Lastly, while Bones Hyland is a terrific value tonight, it is worth noting the Mavericks are a fairly negative matchup from a FPPM perspective.
Popular DFS Play: Gabe Vincent
Price: $4,600/$4,800
Own%: 47.63%/47.15%
Gabe Vincent is under $5k on both sites tonight and should play over 30 minutes. The Heat are missing Butler, Herro, Duncan Robinson, and Bam is doubtful. On the one hand this makes them a very bad basketball team, but on the other hand these are still professional players and they’re still going to score points. In any contests other than large field GPPs you likely start by plugging in Vincent.
DFS Value Play: Bones Hyland
Price: $5,000/$5,800
5x%: 80.80%/73.90%
Bones Hyland has over a 30% usage rate with Jokic and Murray off the court. Additionally, he averages over a fantasy point per minute and should easily see 30+ minutes tonight. At his price he is an excellent value and another player that you likely start your build with.
Player to avoid in DFS: The other Warriors
Price: $5,800(Klay), $6,000 (Dray)/$5,500 (Klay), $5,700 (Dray)
LevX: -14.22, -7.89/-15.13, -46.45
Klay Thompson and Draymond Green both are expected to see slightly inflated ownership due to the matchup with the Knicks. However, at a position-level, neither one has an outlier matchup. Additionally, both of them have a ton of similarly priced players around them that have higher median projections and lower ownership. Curry is a strong spend up option tonight, but the other Warriors can likely be avoided on a slate this size with so many other options.
NBA DFS final thoughts
The majority of lineups tonight are likely to have 3 Heat players. However, the Wizards are not some cake matchup and the efficiency of the Miami Heat drops significantly. While a similar construction may still be warranted, feel free to swap to pivots at similar price points. While it’s no secret that the Knicks are a team to target, the Warriors are also giving up a positive FPPM boost to opposing teams and no one is playing Knicks despite the acknowledgement of the great game environment. Good luck tonight!
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