Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Tyus Jones makes another appearance in this article with Morant slated to miss tonight's game. Jones is one of the better backup PGs in the league, so when he is given the chance to start he is usually very effective. Furthermore, both Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. will miss tonight’s game as well, which should only further increase the minutes and usage Tyus will see. Jones will likely be the highest owned player on tonight’s slate.
- With Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic still out, Bones Hyland finds himself in a similar situation to the one from 2 days ago. Hyland is the leading candidate to lead the team in usage yet again and projects as a great value play on both sites.
- Despite Cade Cunningham missing time, Ivey has mostly disappointed in his absence. With Cunningham still out and Saddiq Bey now missing tonight’s game, Ivey may see near 50% ownership. The field will likely continue to chase Ivey’s perceived upside, but with him priced up there are other places to go on tonight’s slate.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
DEM Overview
Tonight's slate sees the most fantasy friendly matchup we could ask for! The Lakers and Spurs face-off with each team 1st and 2nd respectively in FPPM boosts given to their opponents. With Jakob Poeltl ruled out and Lebron still questionable, some value may open up in this game. However, even if it doesn't, I would try to prioritize getting some exposure to the players in this game.
Popular DFS Play: Tyus Jones
Price: $5,200/$5,900
Own%: 64.86%/49.96%
Somehow I'm always writing about Tyus Jones. This time however, Ja Morant is not the only grizzly out, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. join Morant on the sidelines today for Memphis. The Grizzlies are short on bodies, but they are severely short on ball-handlers/playmakers. Tyus has been effective in the past when just Morant misses time, so now with Bane and JJJ out as well expect Tyus to be extremely popular on both sites tonight.
DFS Value Play: Bones Hyland
Price: $5,600/$5,800
5x%: 51.60%/54.40%
As written 2 days ago, “Bones Hyland has over a 30% usage rate with Jokic and Murray off the court. Additionally, he averages over a fantasy point per minute and should easily see 30+ minutes tonight. At his price he is an excellent value and another player that you likely start your build with.” Despite only shooting 5-16 in a similar situation just 2 days ago, Bones still put up 30.5 Draftkings points. He is once again a great value play tonight.
Player to avoid in DFS: Jaden Ivey
Price: $6,500/$6,900
LevX: -26.41/-12.29
Despite high hopes for Ivey with Cade injured, he has mostly disappointed in his absence. Ivey has yet to eclipse 39 or more Draftkings points in 5 games without Cade, and is now priced up. Saddiq Bey is scheduled to miss tonight's game, and that may be contributing to the popularity of Ivey tonight. However, Bey's usage was down and his absence is more likely to help other Piston's players more than it will help Ivey.
NBA DFS final thoughts
There isn’t a ton of smash value on this slate, so expect the high-priced studs to go under-owned on this slate. At the time of writing this it appears that most people will be building mid-priced balanced builds and not getting up to the studs. There is injury news that could change this and open up value, but as of now I would try to prioritize getting at least one of the high-priced studs in all of my lineups. Good luck tonight!
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