Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Nikola Jovic should once again be a popular source of value for the shorthanded Heat. In his three starts he’s averaging over 28 minutes and double-digit points. Additionally, his size should be needed against Minnesota tonight.
- Jonathan Kuminga is near min-price and should have ample opportunity tonight. The Warriors are resting Curry, Klay, and Draymond so there is a ton of usage to go around. However, expect ownership here to be massive.
- Jarrett Allen is projected to be the most popular player at C in DFS tonight. While he does benefit from the matchup, his median projection is far from elite at his price point. This is one of those plays where there are just a multitude of options in the same range that project about the same with lower ownership.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
DEM Overview
The current two worst teams in the NBA as far as FPPM boosts are playing each other tonight with Thunder versus Knicks. However, there’s lower ownership on almost all of the players from either side. Conversely we have a few chalky Jazz pieces versus the Clippers despite it being the most negative FPPM environment.
Popular DFS Play: Nikola Jovic
Price: $4,000/$4,500
Own%: 25.63%/19.96%
The Miami Heat will be short-handed again tonight. The lack of depth combined with the size of Minnesota should open up plenty of minutes for Nikola Jovic. PF/F spots are generally places you want to find value in your roster construction and optimizers are plugging him accordingly. While he has gotten priced up slightly he should still be able to hit value.
DFS Value Play: Jonathan Kuminga
Price: $3,300/$4,000
5x%: 74.10%/54.60%
The Warriors are another short-handed team tonight with Curry, Klay, and Dray all resting. This opens up a ton of usage for the remaining players. Jonathan Kuminga, despite having arguably the worst nickname ever, should absolutely smash value tonight. He’s near min-price and also fills that PF/F spot in rosters. Probably best not to overthink this one.
Player to avoid in DFS: Jarrett Allen
Price: $6,700/$6,900
LevX: -11.69/-29.70
Jarrett Allen should see a few more minutes tonight as last game the Cavs routed the Heat. Additionally, it’s a strong matchup boost versus the Hawks. However, the concern here is that Allen’s Median projection isn’t even currently top 3 at his price range yet he has the highest ownership. Given that there is some strong value chalk this could be a good place to differentiate your DFS lineups.
NBA DFS final thoughts
Tonight is fairly straightforward. Heat plus Warriors and fill in the rest. That being said, it is still an 8-game slate so this condensed ownership means there is going to be a lot of overlooked spots. With fairly solid value chalk you could look to pivot at some of the mid-range and high-end spots. Going balanced instead of stars and scrubs is another way to get different. Whatever way you choose to get different just be mindful of the type of contests you’re in and how far off the path you need to go. Good luck tonight!
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