Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- The Sixers remain without their top 3 players in usage rate tonight in a matchup against Charlotte. Milton has 3 straight games of 28.8 or more Draftkings points and draws another favorable matchup tonight with the Sixers still short on bodies. Expect Milton to be one of the most popular players on the slate.
- With both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George out for the Clippers tonight, Terrance Mann should see an increase in minutes with LAC short on bodies. Mann can accumulate fantasy points in a variety of ways, and is near minimum price on both sites tonight. If you are looking for value, Mann projects as a solid play.
- Jordan Clarkson is truly one of those guys that you should only play when they’re low owned, and try to avoid when they are chalky. Well, following a couple of good games and in a great matchup tonight vs. Detroit, Clarkson projects to be roughly 40% owned. That doesn’t seem like a fun click.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
DEM Overview
We have some fun DEM matchups to look at on tonight's slate. OKC is head and shoulders above the rest of the league currently in terms of FPPM boosts given to their opponents. Moreover, Nikola Jokic has posted back to back triple-double's vs OKC this season and projects to be roughly 5% owned tonight.
Popular DFS Play: Shake Milton
Price: $5,500/$6,000
Own%: 52.14%/32.56%
The Sixers remain without Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and James Harden. Shake Milton has posted 28.8+ points in 3 straight games now and is likely to be top 3 in usage rate again tonight. Having barely received a bump in price, Milton at just $5,500 in a good matchup vs Charlotte will be one of the most popular players on tonight’s slate.
DFS Value Play: Terrance Mann
Price: $3,400/$3,700
5x%: 50.80%/38.60%
This may come as a shock, but Kawhi Leonard is out for the Clippers tonight. Paul George will join him on the sidelines after being ruled out with a knee injury. Terrance Mann is near min price on both sites and will likely see 30+ minutes tonight with the Clippers short on bodies. Mann doesn’t rely on just scoring to accumulate fantasy points, and because of this he projects as a great value play tonight.
Player to avoid in DFS: Jordan Clarkson
Price: $6,900/$6,300
LevX: -18.61/-39.58
Who doesn’t love themselves some chalky Jordan Clarkson? Clarkson is coming off back to back good games, including 42.5 Draftkings points 2 days ago at $6,500. However, Clarkson is extremely reliant on scoring real life points in order to score fantasy points. Furthermore, Clarkson got a decent $400 price bump and despite the positive matchup tonight, Clarkson can easily fail with a bad shooting night.
NBA DFS final thoughts
We (of course) have another injury report as long as a Thanksgiving to do list for tonight’s slate. There is a lot of news to wait on, but as it currently stands the high priced studs on tonight’s slate are going massively overlooked. Now this may change if more value opens up, but as of now I would try my best to build more stars and scrubs lineups while the field takes a more balanced approach. Good luck tonight!
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