Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Jose Alvarado should draw another start with CJ McCollum set to miss his second straight game. Alvarado is averaging just over a fantasy point per minute. Despite likely not playing over 30 minutes he’s cheap enough to still easily hit value.
- Tari Eason absolutely smashed in his last game filling in for Alperen Sengun. Sengun is doubtful tonight which makes Eason a strong value play for DFS. While he may not get a huge allotment of minutes, Eason has been an excellent per-minute producer.
- Collin Sexton will likely get another start in place of injured Mike Conley. Unfortunately, Sexton has been a 0.91 FPPM and the Jazz have been careful with his minutes. That said, he did play 35 minutes in the last game and should be a fine value if he plays that much tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
DEM Overview
The Knicks, Rockets, and Thunder are three of the top teams to attack with the FPPM boosts they’re allowing. However, with the exception of Anfernee Simons there’s modest ownership on the opposing team (Hawks, Bulls, Blazers). This is definitely something we can take advantage of.
Popular DFS Play: Jose Alvarado
Price: $3,900/$4,700
Own%: 67.94%/64.76%
Jose Alvarado is projected for just under 30 minutes and a usage rate of almost 20%. However, what makes Alvarado a strong value is his ability to contribute across the stat sheet. In his previous start he finished with 5 points, 9 assists, 3 rebounds, and 3 steals. Additionally, he had a 29% assist rate.
DFS Value Play: Tari Eason
Price: $4,000/$4,200
5x%: 66.90%/71.10%
Tari Eason has the highest 5x% on Fanduel and the second highest on Draftkings according to the models. Eason has been a strong FPPM player and assuming he gets additional minutes with Sengun out again he should easily hit value. Additionally, at slightly lower ownership than some other value plays he's a good way to get different.
Player to avoid in DFS: Collin Sexton
Price: $4,600/$4,700
LevX: -9.88/-21.31
Collin Sexton has made two starts now for Mike Conley and is set to make a third tonight. In the first he played 28 minutes, and in the second 35 minutes as well as setting a season-high in assists. This spot really comes down to how many minutes and how much usage you expect Sexton to get. He’s not a superior FPPM producer so the more minutes he plays the better. Overall there are still some questions for a player projected to have top 5 ownership.
NBA DFS final thoughts
The vast majority of DFS lineups tonight are going to contain the value combination of Alvarado/Powell/Sexton. If you plan on playing that group just make sure you are getting different elsewhere in your lineup. Additionally, a lot of the stud players tonight aren’t coming in with high ownership. For example, Jokic, Giannis, and Morant all project for under 5% ownership. Good luck tonight!
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