Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- With Mike Conley still sidelined, his replacement as the Jazz’s starting point guard, Collin Sexton, is sub 5K on Draftkings and will likely be the most popular play on tonight’s slate.
- Kelly Olynyk has been seeing 30+ minutes per game for the Utah Jazz and has been productive in his time. Given how tight this slate is, Olynyk provides a nice floor with some hidden upside if his shot is falling.
- Keldon Johnson is in a special kind of slump right now, averaging just 12 points over his last 5 games. Johnson is pretty cheap all things considered on a short slate like tonight, but given his hefty ownership he may be worth fading in hopes that his struggles continue.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
DEM Overview
Even on a short 3 game slate like tonight’s, we have 3 of the 5 top FPPM boosting teams playing. This includes a showdown between OKC and Houston, who give the 1st and 5th biggest bumps to their opponents FPPM outputs. Despite this however, none of the players from this game really project to garner much ownership, and are worth getting some exposure to as this game could go nuclear.
Popular DFS Play: Collin Sexton
Price: $4,900/$5,400
Own%: 70.00%/16.09%
Collin Sexton has taken over the starting point guard duties for the Utah Jazz in the absence of Mike Conley. Sexton has recorded 36 and 27.3 fantasy points in the last 2 games respectively. On a short slate like tonight, expect Sexton to be extremely popular as people scrape for value.
DFS Value Play: Kelly Olynyk
Price: $5,400/$5,300
5x%: 35.80%/46.00%
Never really thought I'd see the day that 5K+ Kelly Olynyk would be considered value but that's how tight this slate is. Olynyk has quietly met value in 4 straight games, including 2 games of 34.5+ Draftkings points. He’s consistently playing 30+ minutes per game and can meet value without having a good scoring night. Furthermore, when his shot is falling, he can reach more of his ceiling.
Player to avoid in DFS: Keldon Johnson
Price: $6,800/$6,100
LevX: -51.93/-43.00
Keldon Johnson is in a slump that I really have not seen in quite some time. Johnson is shooting 28% from the floor and 19% from 3 over his last 5 games. This stretch includes 2 games vs the Lakers, where he has shot a combined 10-43 from the field and 2-18 from 3. While it is unlikely that this slump will last forever, Johnson projects to be very high owned despite his recent struggles, and is a good fade candidate tonight.
NBA DFS final thoughts
This is a 3 game slate with very little injury news capable of opening up value. Given the lack of available salary relief, the field is likely to reach on some gross “value” in order to make lineups work. With this in mind, I would advise avoiding the chalky “value” the best you can, as many of these players do not project well enough above their alternatives for the ownership they will receive. If you’re going to play gross value, make sure it isn’t chalky. Good luck tonight!
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