Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Trey Murphy is projected to be massive chalk tonight as Brandon Ingram is doubtful and CJ McCollum already ruled out. With both Ingram and CJ off the court Murphy has about a 20% usage rate and averages right around a fantasy point per minute. Considering he is under $5k on both sites it’s no surprise that Murphy will be the starting point for a lot of DFS lineups.
- Jose Alvarado is drawing another start with CJ McCollum out again. Additionally, Brandon Ingram is also doubtful. Alvarado is also still priced below $5k on both sites making him solid value yet again. However, keep in mind he’s only seeing around 30 minutes of action despite the increased opportunity.
- Terry Rozier is getting all of the opportunity he can handle with a depleted Hornets squad. He’s played over 35 minutes in four straight games and that should once again be the case. Unfortunately, the increased role has coincided with a shooting slump. Roll of the dice if you think positive regression comes due tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
DEM Overview
Kind of quietly the Utah Jazz have fallen off a cliff defensively. They are now allowing the top FPPM boost in the league and outside of modest ownership on DeRozan no other Bulls are going to be owned. Similarly, Pacers including Haliburton are also going unowned in a terrific spot versus the Lakers. Lastly, the Thunder continue to be really bad from a FPPM allowed perspective making it hard to completely ignore the Pelicans value chalk.
Popular DFS Play: Trey Murphy III
Price: $4,600/$4,300
Own%: 70.00%/70.00%
Trey Murphy III is probably going to be the highest owned player on the slate by a wide margin. While Murphy only played 26 minutes in the last game, it was a blowout loss and Ingram started that game. He is currently projected to play between 30-35 minutes, Ingram is doubtful, and given the strong matchup it’s a tough spot to fade. That said, there are additional Pelicans who should benefit for all of the same reason and will be slightly less owned than Murphy.
DFS Value Play: Jose Alvarado
Price: $4,300/$4,700
5x%: 62.00%/53.60%
Jose Alvarado is projected for just under 30 minutes and has had a usage rate around 18% with CJ out. Additionally, there is even more opportunity tonight with Brandon Ingram doubtful and a great matchup versus the Thunder. That said, Alvarado has seen a price increase and does have a somewhat limited ceiling. Still a strong bet to hit 5x his price, but how much more than that is questionable.
Player to avoid in DFS: Terry Rozier
Price: $7,700/$7,400
LevX: -19.91/-24.39
Terry Rozier will get plenty of minutes and shots up to try and see some positive regression shooting the basketball. However, is that something you want to bank on as he will be one of the most popular players tonight? In his current slump he is shooting just 36% from the field and 22% from beyond the arc. At a price over $7k on both sites another poor shooting night can absolutely tank your lineup.
NBA DFS final thoughts
The majority of DFS lineups tonight are going to be packed with Pelicans. However, the Orlando Magic are just as thin and are playing a Nets team that is on the last leg of a 5-games-in-7-nights stand. Additionally, with all of the value you’ll likely have your pick of superstar to choose from. Currently Embiid and KAT are the only players above $9k projected with double digit ownership. Spend up is an excellent spot to differentiate yourself. Good luck tonight!
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