Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- With Jakob Poeltl sidelined due to injury, Zach Collins replaces him at Center in the Spurs starting lineup. Collins is just $4,900 on Draftkings and averages more than a FPPM. With an increase in minutes and usage, expect Collins to be very popular tonight.
- Their are numerous other Spurs aside from just Jakob Poeltl sidelined tonight. Keita Bates-Diop has been seeing a pretty consistent 25+ minutes per game and is sub 4K on Draftkings. With San Antonio missing half of their normal rotation, Diop should see more than enough minutes to meet value.
- Keldon Johnson's struggles continue. Despite attempting 18 FGA per game, Johnson is at a somewhat comical 31.5% field goal percentage and 28.9% three point percentage over his last 10 games. Johnson may have been intriguing at low ownership in hopes that he would begin to regress, but as one of the chalkiest players on the slate he is a good fade candidate in hopes that he continues to struggle instead.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
DEM Overview
A lot of ownership is condensing tonight around San Antonio and Utah. There is a lot of value on the Spurs with their diminished rotation, but they draw a tough matchup tonight against New Orleans. The Pelicans have given the 4th largest negative FPPM boost to opposing teams. Furthermore, I expected to see Indiana at the top of the DEM sheets given the ownership that Utah is drawing. However, Indiana is more of a neutral fantasy matchup than an extremely favorable one, which may be a common misconception.
Popular DFS Play: Zach Collins
Price: $4,900/$5,600
Own%: 33.33%/30.65%
With Jakob Poeltl out, Zach Collins drew the start in the Spurs last game against OKC. Collins only mustered 22 fantasy points in that game despite a favorable matchup. Collins is still just $4,900 on Draftkings though and with the Spurs decimated with injuries he should see plenty of minutes. Expect Collins to be one of many popular Spurs tonight.
DFS Value Play: Keita Bates-Diop
Price: $3,900/$4,200
5x%: 51.50%/51.70%
Oh look, another cheap Spur. Keita Bates-Diop joins Zach Collins in the frontcourt for the Spurs, who are missing basically half of their normal rotation. Diop started and saw 28 minutes in San Antonio’s last game vs OKC. Diop scored just 16.8 points, but at sub 4k and seeing 25+ minutes, Diop doesn’t need to do much in order to meet value.
Player to avoid in DFS: Keldon Johnson
Price: $7,200/$7,000
LevX: -18.11/-26.49
It feels like yesterday I was writing about Keldon Johnson's borderline historic slump. Well it hasn’t gotten any better, Johnson is now 15-50 in his last 2 games. I respect his unwavering confidence, but at roughly 40% projected ownership tonight I will be passing in hopes that his struggles continue.
NBA DFS final thoughts
This is another slate that appears to cater more towards balanced builds, with several mid-priced options projecting for heavy ownership. Barring more injury news opening up additional value, a good route to take for tournaments could be to “flip the build” and focus more on trying to jam in the stars with the highest ceilings that are going overlooked.
Additionally, avoid negative correlation among the Spurs by not pairing the one’s together that eat into each others ceilings through usage or minutes. Good luck tonight!
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