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Paydirt NBA DFS Triple Threat 12.03.2022

Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

Main Points:

  • Jerami Grant has been leading the Blazers in usage over the last 6 games with Damian Lillard sidelined. Given how Grant has been playing and the fact that he is still under 8K on Draftkings, he will be highly owned on tonight’s slate.
  • Kyle Anderson recorded 39 minutes that amounted to 29.5 Draftkings points in his first start in place of the injured Karl Anthony Towns. Anderson is severely underpriced for the role/minutes he’s stepping into, and projects as a great value play on tonight’s short slate.
  • D’Angelo Russell is likely still somewhat underpriced with KAT out, but he is a very streaky player. Given the price increase that Russell has received, and the fact that he will likely be 40+% owned tonight, there is merit in fading Russell and hoping for a classic 2-15 shooting game that leaves him with a snowflake.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details:

DEM Overview

The ownership on tonight’s short slate is likely to condense around two teams: Minnesota and Portland. Ironic how Minnesota is playing OKC, who gives the largest FPPM boost to opposing teams. Portland is playing Utah, who gives the 2nd largest FPPM boost to opposing teams! Not only are there injuries opening up value on these teams, but they have the best matchups in the league for fantasy production.

Popular DFS Play: Jerami Grant

Price: $7,700/$8,200
Own%: 43.33%/50.35%

Jerami Grant has been absolutely crushing in the absence of Damian Lillard. Grant is averaging 29-3-3 in the last 6 games without Dame and has 43.5+ Draftkings points in 4 straight. Furthermore, Grant is still below 8k, and given how he's been playing he will be very popular on tonight's short slate.

DFS Value Play: Kyle Anderson

Price: $4,400/$4,700
5x%: 52.40%/55.50%

Kyle Anderson has been thrusted into the Timberwolves starting lineup with KAT sidelined due to a calf strain. Anderson logged 39 minutes in the Wolves first game without KAT 3 days ago. Anderson is still just $4,400 and he accumulates fantasy points in a variety of ways outside of scoring. Given the increase in minutes/usage he's receiving and his measly price tag, Anderson projects as a great value play tonight.

Player to avoid in DFS: D'Angelo Russell

Price: $6,800/$6,800
LevX: -22.39/-23.06

Chalky DLO is like chalky Dillon Brooks, not a fun click. This is a short slate, and DLO is likely underpriced for the usage bump he receives with KAT out of the lineup, but DLO is one of those guys you would much rather play at low ownership as opposed to extreme chalk. Russell has been passing more of late, helping to bolster his floor through assists. However, Russell is very streaky, and he has received a decent price bump. Fading Russell tonight will get you different from the field, and he has clear paths to failing at his price.

NBA DFS final thoughts

Minnesota and Portland are going to receive a bulk of the ownership on tonight's short 4-game slate. It’s impossible to avoid eating some of this chalk with limited options to choose from. However, you can be different from the field by avoiding negative correlation within your lineups. For example, both Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons are projected to be 40+% owned tonight. While it is still certainly possible that they both crush given the usage distribution on the Blazers right now, it is less likely that both put up a ceiling in the same game. Much of the field will roster these two together given their projections, but there is merit to separating them from another. Good luck tonight!

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