Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Tyus Jones is underpriced on both sites for the boosts he should see with Ja and Bane out. Jones is projected for 35+ minutes and a significant boost in usage rate. In cash games he should be one of the first players in and is certainly viable in GPPs as well.
- TJ McConnell did not play last night due to an illness but should be back tonight. Additionally, Haliburton has already been ruled out so McConnell should step right into an increased role. Despite the matchup with Golden State, he should still hit value as the Warriors are a positive FPPM boost for opposing teams.
- Benedict Mathurin is another beneficiary of Haliburton missing tonight. However, he is also more expensive than either McConnell or Nembhard. Although he should have increased minutes and usage it’s not leading to a particularly high median projection.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Tyus Jones
TJ McConnell
Dillon Brooks
David Roddy
Andrew Nembhard
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Jrue Holiday, James Harden, Steph Curry
SG: Klay Thompson, Derrick White, Jalen Green
SF: Jaylen Brown, Mikal Bridges, Buddy Hield
PF: Jalen Johnson, Jayson Tatum, Pascal Siakam
C: Deandre Ayton, Myles Turner, Mason Plumlee
Popular DFS Play: Tyus Jones
Price: $4,300/$5,200
Own%: 70.00%/70.00%
DFS Value Play: TJ McConnell
Price: $3,900/$4,200
5x%: 85.40%/82.30%
Player to avoid in DFS: Benedict Mathurin
Price: $5,400/$5,500
LevX: -12.88/-9.38
NBA DFS final thoughts
Tonight is shaping up to be a classic starts and scrubs slate. Popular value plays will be from the Pacers and Grizzlies due to high usage players Tyrese Haliburton and Ja Morant missing not playing. Based on ownership projections and optimal builds both Trae Young and Giannis look to be the popular spend ups. While this chalk roster construction doesn’t need to be faded, playing alternative spend ups could be a simple way to get different. Alternatively, you could consider the mid-range options from the Pacers/Grizzlies as opposed to the cheap players. Good luck tonight!
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