Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Tyler Herro gets a fantastic matchup versus the Detroit Pistons who are giving up a 10% FPPM boost to opposing shooting guards. Additionally, Jimmy Butler has been ruled out and Kyle Lowry has been downgraded to questionable. Herro will be one of the highest owned players in DFS tonight but for good reason.
- Tim Hardaway Jr. isn’t a smash value, but on a 3-game slate he’s the top 5X% on Draftkings. He’s been shooting hot and should see 30+ minutes at a cheap price. However, on Fanduel Bruce Brown is the better option.
- Bam Adebayo should also benefit from an increased role without Jimmy Butler and potentially without Lowry. However, he’s the most expensive option on the Heat, will be chalk, and doesn’t have a super high median projection relative to his price. That said, the argument can be made for just taking the raw points on a short game slate.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Tyler Herro
Bruce Brown
Max Strus
Jarrett Allen
Bam Adebayo
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Jamal Murray, Dennis Schroder
SG: Donovan Mitchell, Jaden Ivey
SF: Bojan Bogdanovic, LeBron James
PF: Isaiah Stewart, Evan Mobley
C: Anthony Davis, Nikola Jokic
Popular DFS Play: Tyler Herro
Price: $7,200/$7,700
Own%: 70.00%/70.00%
DFS Value Play: Tim Hardaway Jr.
Price: $4,400/$5,700
5x%: 49.10%/24.60%
Player to avoid in DFS: Bam Adabayo
Price: $8,000/$8,900
LevX: -42.57/-35.58
NBA DFS final thoughts
Short slates are often great opportunities for leverage and tonight is no different. Jamal Murray, for example, has an almost identical median projection to Tyler Herro but projects for less than half of the ownership. Likewise, because of the lack of strong value balanced builds will be very popular leaving some of the elite upside spend-up options lower owned. Good luck tonight!
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