Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Update 6:16pm EST: Based on updated ownership/projections Klay Thompson is also a player to avoid with a negative LevX% on both sites. You don't need to fade both Klay and Westbrook, but one of them should be a spot to pivot.
Main Points:
- Thomas Bryant will be one of the highest owned players in DFS tonight. The Lakers are without Lebron and AD which opens up a ton of usage. Bryant came in for AD last night and played 28 minutes, given his historical rates, if he sees that many minutes or more he will be a smash value and likely worth the ownership.
- Jonathan Kuminga has been a strong FPPM player in his first 2 seasons and should play close to 30 minutes tonight. With Steph, Wiggins, and Draymond all out tonight Kuminga is simply too cheap for the increased opportunity. Kuminga is a top value on both sites tonight.
- Russell Westbrook has over a 30% usage rate and a 40% assist rate without AD and Lebron. However, he continues to earn the Westbrick moniker with an atrocious true shooting percentage. The Westbrook fade really comes down to whether or not you think he can get his shot to fall.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Russell Westbrook
Klay Thompson
Jonathan Kuminga
Jordan Poole
Thomas Bryant
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Jalen Brunson, D'Angelo Russell, Jose Alvarado
SG: Zach LaVine, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaylen Brown
SF: Kelly Oubre Jr., Jayson Tatum, Anthony Edwards
PF: Zion Williamson, PJ Washington, Julius Randle
C: Mitchell Robinson, Kristaps Porzingis, Kelly Olynyk
Popular DFS Play: Thomas Bryant
Price: $3,100/$4,300
Own%: 70.00%/62.33%
DFS Value Play: Jonathan Kuminga
Price: $3,400/$4,000
5x%: 65.70%/49.30%
Player to avoid in DFS: Russell Westbrook
Price: $6,500/$6,900
LevX: 05.55/ 12.57
NBA DFS final thoughts
There are a ton of high usage players out tonight including Anthony Davis, Lebron James, and Steph Curry. The default thought might be that this is going to be a clear stars and scrubs night, however, current ownership projections suggest otherwise. Part of this is because players like Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole, and Russell Westbrook are projected to be high owned and none of them are particularly cheap. Since these three players are all priced in the midrange it’s leading to more balanced builds. If this holds, the easy way to get different tonight is to go with a stars and scrubs build. Good luck tonight!
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