Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- It feels like Keldon Johnson is chalk on every slate that the Spurs are involved in. In this instance it may actually be warranted. With Devin Vassell doubtful, and Jeremy Sochan/Jakob Poeltl already ruled out, the Spurs are not only short on bodies, they're severely short on shot creation. Johnson has taken 20+ shots in 5 straight games and all of those were with Devin Vassell. Expect Johnson to be the highest owned player on tonight's slate.
- As mentioned above, the Spurs are without Jeremy Sochan and Jakob Poeltl tonight. Charles Bassey has played 20+ minutes in back to back games for the Spurs serving as the backup 5. Bassey is roughly a FPPM player, and at just $3,600 on Draftkings he projects to be a great value play on tonight's short slate.
- Kevin Porter Jr. is likely to be popular tonight after a solid performance against the Sixers a few nights ago. However, that game went to double OT and KPJ needed 44 minutes in order to eclipse 40 Draftkings points. Prior to that game, KPJ had scored 35+ Draftkings in just 1 of his last 5 games. Given that he is still priced over $7K, and his streaky nature, he is a good candidate to fade tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement
Charles Bassey
Tre Jones
Keldon Johnson
Jalen Green
Jimmy Butler
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Damian Lillard/Anfernee Simons, Reggie Jackson/John Wall
SG: Paul George, Anfernee Simons
SF: Paul George, Haywood Highsmith, Kenyon Martin Jr.
PF: Aaron Gordon, Marcus Morris, Nicolas Batum/Robert Covington
C: Nikola Jokic, Ivica Zubac/Moses Brown
Popular DFS Play: Keldon Johnson
Price: $7,500/$7,600
Own%: 70.00%/70.00%
DFS Value Play: Charles Bassey
Price: $3,600/$4,700
5x%: 57.10%/21.00%
Player to avoid in DFS: Kevin Porter Jr.
Price: $7,300/$7,600
LevX: -48.70/ -52.34
NBA DFS final thoughts
These 3 game slates are so tricky. Luckily injuries have opened up some value, specifically on none other than the San Antonio Spurs. My best recommendation on slates like these is to avoid negative correlation to the best of your ability. For example, Zach Collins and Charles Bassey both project to be decent options tonight, but they directly affect the others minutes and therefore ceilings. Much of the field won’t pay a ton of attention to this given the size of the slate and their projected value. Therefore, by separating scenarios like this out within your lineups, you can increase your ceiling outcomes and differentiate from the field. Good luck tonight!
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